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Forex4you Technical Analysis 15 May 2013

AUD/USD: Close to Triangle Border

The aussie has broken down out of the sideways consolidation range on the weekly chart. It will probably now eventually fall to the lower border of the multi-month triangle at 0.9780, however, it has already reached strong support from the level of the monthly pivot at 0.9830, which could lead to a bounce first, with a move above 0.9920 giving bullish confirmation of a rally, probably to parity, although overall the chart looks quite bearish. A downside breakout from the triangle is a tantalizing possibility now followed by a fall to the target at 0.8100.

EUR/USD: Near Key 1.2870 Level

EUR/USD broke below the 200-day MA and has started a new leg lower. It will probably now continue to the strong bundle of support at 1.2870, composed of pivots and a trend-line. A break of that level would be required , however, for confirmation of a deeper move, initially to the 1.2745 lows and then probably even to 1.2675. It seems the whole of the move down from February is unfolding in an Elliot wave with the current move lower a final 5th . Any kind of a rebound would need to break above 1.3028 for bulls to get interested.

USD/JPY: Up-Trend Continuing

The USD/JPY pair has continued rising after the breakout above the key 100 level and then above the monthly pivot at 100.68. It will probably continue higher until it reaches the target from the ascending triangle at 104.00, which is also the level of the monthly and weekly pivots. Alternatively given the up-move is now overbought, there is now the possibility that we might see a correction, with a move back down to 102.00 possible, or if below that, then back to the monthly pivot at 100.68, subject to confirmation from price itself.

Analysis By: Joaquin Monfort, Forex4you Analyst

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