The EUR/USD pair has broken below the S1 monthly pivot at 1.3564 and is currently moving lower. If it breaks below the 1.3544 confirmation level it will probably extend down to the level of the major trend-line drawn from June 2012 at 1.3517, which is expected to exert strong support.
The very short-term up-trend is now in doubt, although the short-term trend - which I define as roughly corresponding to the period of time since the move down from the May highs - is bearish. The medium term trend remains bullish - further complicating matters. Ultimately the direction of the currency is dependent on the fate of the major trend-line at 1.3517. If it holds the mid-term bull will rise again; if it breaks we may see a strong move down and new price paradigm in the early 1.30s.
Analysis by: LigaForex Analyst