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Stock Focus List         02-05-2011
Published WEEKLY on Monday 9:00am


GOAL of this Analysis:

> Identify stocks with positive technical indicators trading close to
   their Pivot Point.


FEATURED STOCKS
Deckers (NASDAQ:DECK) Advancing @ $80.94
Limited  (LTD) Advancing @ $31.27
Lululemon (NASDAQ:LULU Advancing @ $76.96
CRITERIA for selection include:
- Strengthening Technical Indicators
- Rising Relative Strength Index (RSI)
- Trading Above & Close To The 50-day Moving Average (dMA)
- Trading Close to the Pivot Point
- Challenging Basing Stage Overhead Resistance Or In Early Phase 
  Advancing Stage (higher highs & higher lows)
- Positive Momentum Indicator (MACD)
- Trading Volume of 400,000 shares per day and greater
- Dominance within respective industry
- Not Extended / Overbought


The 4 Market Stages are: Basing, Advancing, Topping & Declining

Current Stage: ADVANCING 
 


Definition of a Pivot Point:

> The price that is $0.10 (10 cents) above the most recent resistance (intra-day high).

> Another way of stating this is: The Pivot Point is the spot where a rising stock faces the final level of overhead resistance. Once it trades above this level, there is greater probability the stock may rise as sellers whom wanted to sell have been shaken out (or concluded their selling). 

> A Pivot Point may be referred to as the Ideal Buy Price.


Definition of a Breakout: A breakout occurs when a stock makes a NEW HIGH OVER PREVIOUS RESISTANCE HIGH WITH SURGING VOLUME - volume to be at least 50% above average and ideally 2x and greater. A new high over previous high with average or light volume does not constitute a breakout. Heavy volume MUST support the move.

Note:
Securities that breakout might be pressured to pullback into a base and possibly re-test support levels. In an upward biased / BULL MARKET, breakouts typically gain substantial momentum. In a downward biased / BEAR MARKET > not a buy & hold environment. MUST monitor often & employ a stop loss limit.


Stocks that appeared on previous Stock Focus List and are no longer mentioned below may be due to the following conditions:

- The stock has appreciated considerably and is now viewed as extended / overbought. A pullback close to the proximity of the Pivot Point providing for an ideal re-entry price would be the time for reinstating the stock on the watch list.

- The stock violated the Stop Loss Protection Rule as is now trading 7% or greater below the Pivot Point. Typically, stocks that violate the 7% stop loss have near-term deterioration of technical indicators. When the stock completes the pullback and emerges with strengthening indicators approaching the Pivot Point, the stock will then be reinstated on the watch list.


Clarification to stocks mentioned below:

> PIVOT POINT (abbreviated as PV) - Referred to as: The Ideal Buy Price.

> NOW signifies the stock is trading at or slightly above the pivot price which implies the overhead resistance barrier is in process of being penetrated.

> WHEN NOW DOES NOT APPEAR next to the securities listed below, the stock is not yet at the ideal buy price. The stock is being monitored for price direction that will ultimately be labeled NOW or the stock WILL BE REMOVED from the list as may exhibit erosion in price with deteriorating indicators.




Trading ABOVE 50-day Moving Average & Positive Indicators
(Closing prices as of 02-04-2011   4:00pm)

COMMENTS:
Major Indexes Continue UP-TREND:
On Friday, despite a mixed Jobs Report and turmoil in Egypt, stocks continued to gain ground on mixed voume.  The TREND remains remaiins decisively UP...

In all market climates, Selective Chartists maintains and constantly refreshes a watch list of securities that display strengthening indicators and positive developing chart patterns. It is important to maintain a list of securities that are displaying leadership qualities.  

Securities mentioned below are currently displaying potential for upside momentum. Momentum in the overall market would be a catalyst for these securities to see higher prices. A lackluster or downward biased market may curb gains.
Stop Loss Protection should be used at ALL TIMES to minimize loss from initial purchase price. Move stop limits up during price advances to lock in gains (during pullbacks). 

Disclaimer - Principal goal of this information:
Material is provided for EDUCATIONAL & EVALUATIVE PURPOSES only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement to buy, sell or hold with respect to any security or investment. Chart analysis is an interpretation and subjective process. There are no guarantees the stocks presented will perform in the manner of the interpretation as many factors can affect performance.


Retail:      
Costco (NASDAQ:COST) $73.96 PV $73.80 NOW
Deckers (DECK) $80.94 PV $82.77
Limited (LTD) $31.27 PV $31.10 NOW
Lululemon $76.96 PV $74.70 NOW
Nike (NYSE:NKE) $85.74 PV $85.08 NOW
Under Armour (NYSE:UA) $63.70 PV $60.24 NOW Caution - may need pullbacl
Other:      
Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) $246.31 PV $240.50 NOW
Danaher (NYSE:DHR) $47.98 PV $48.06
ETFs:       
QQQQ, SPY, IWM, XLI, Xly
Inverse Funds:      
Dow 30 (NYSEARCA:DXD)
ProShares Short Dow 30 (NYSEARCA:DOG
ProShares Short S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SH
QQQ (NYSEARCA:QID
SP 500 (NYSEARCA:SDS






                                  Chart courtesy StockCharts.com   Composed by Selective Chartists





                                  Chart courtesy StockCharts.com   Composed by Selective Chartists





                      Chart courtesy StockCharts.com   Composed by Selective Chartists