Super Bowl XLVI: Who Will Win & Square Pools

Feb. 04, 2012 4:19 PM ET
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Alternative assets, portfolio construction

Contributor Since 2010

Carlton Chin, CFA, is an Investment Officer and "quant" focused on portfolio strategy and risk management. He has served as portfolio manager, Chief Investment Officer, "prop trader," and head of research for firms including Goldman Sachs, Commodities Corp., Mt. Lucas, and Price Asset/CARAT. Carlton is a specialist in portfolio construction, alternative assets, quant research, and downside risk management. He has been quoted by the Wall St. Journal, NY Times, and Financial Trader - and holds both SM and SB degrees from MIT.

Who Will Win the Big Game?

Our goal in "Who Will Win the Big Game?" is to quantify several key factors related to sports psychology. Our "quant facts" focus on championship factors such as minimizing errors, consistency, confidence, and experience. Although these traits differ somewhat from popular approaches and sometimes select underdogs, the published selections from our book's blog have been correct more than 60% of the time.

In this year's article, we also looked at momentum -- based on the New York Giant's surge during the playoffs. Our analysis was picked up by the New York Times.

Read more here:

Super Bowl Square Pools

Our article on Super Bowl Square Pools is from two years ago -- but has been popular. If you are in a square pool, the probabilities are interesting:

To see how various combinations of numbers have fared, based on every quarter of the past 43 Super Bowls, we computed the probability for each square to win at the end of each quarter. To inform our calculations, we also took into account which team was favored to win.
Read more here:

Financial and investing articles by Carlton Chin

Diversification: Active vs. Passive Management

Managed Futures & Commodities: 2012 Outlook

Carlton Chin, CFA, is chief investment officer and head of research at CARAT / Adamah Capital, an alternative asset manager focused on quantitative investment strategies, commodities, and managed futures. Carlton is a specialist in strategic asset allocation, portfolio optimization, systematic trading approaches, and risk management.

Jay Granat, PhD, psychotherapist, is founder of and has coached athletes at all levels, including professional athletes and an Olympic gold medalist. Jay was named one of America's top mental gurus by Golf Digest.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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