Weekly SP-500 Trend Commentary
*** Status: Market Bullish - Caution - Sector Funds ***
This week maybe signaling a change in trend, especially when we look at the small cap index the Russell 2000. The general market trading filter I use (SP-500 53 day CCI) is at 111 indicating Market Up which is down from 140 last week. My multiple composite SP-500 indicators on the daily chart are both positive also providing a bullish signal. As seen at the right the CCI(53) indicator is still positive for all the four major indexes. However, the CCI(53) for the Russell 2000 has dropped to 32.
The Guppy Plot for the SP-500 is bullish with the fast moving above the slow moving averages, but the average slope of the fast moving averages is slightly negative this week and the slow moving averages slope positive. The ADX components are also bullish, but turning toward Bearish. In contrast, the Guppy Plot for the Russell 2000 shows the slope of the fast moving averages has gone negative, the ADX is signaling a bearish move, and the Stoch is heading down sharply. The small caps could be providing an early signal to a new downtrend.
We’ll see what the next week brings. We don't try to forecast the market here, rather we just monitor the current conditions and react accordingly. This week there is one change to model portfolios. We are no longer publishing updates to the Vanguard ETF Portfolio since it is published on Collective2. I hope you find this blog helpful. If you do, why not leave a comment.
Rankings:
This week's Rankings show large cap sector funds are now at the top with bond funds at the bottom of the rankings. Ranking scores are color coded to indicate positive ranking scores (rate of change / volatility) in green, and negative ranking scores in red. Overall the list is sorted by overall rank but the score that makes up the rank can be positive or negative depending on the recent rate of change. The full list of the funds that are ranked can be found under the Funds tab. Current Rankings of the Funds can be found under the Rankings tab.
Actions:
Sell SMPIX in the Schwab Portfolio
Buy SCHV in the Schwab Portfolio
Model portfolios are listed here.
Performance (NOT including dividends):
Schwab: 6.89% (SPY: 19.65%)
Exclusive Verified Trading System
Vanguard Free ETFs (29% Compounded Annual Return)
Disclosure:
No positions at the time of this post.
What others are saying (all free sites): Overall Bullish - Caution
Advisory Sentiment: 56% Bullish / 21% Bearish
AAII Sentiment: 51% Bullish / 20% Neutral / 29% Bearish
Barchart: 88% Buy (last week 100%)
Bulkowski: Neutral (CPI=45% last week at 86%)
Buy-Don't Hold: Sell Signal (-4)
MTR Investors Market Timing Model: Market Up
My Trend Timer: Bullish
OneQTrades: Up Trend
Stock TA (SPY): Bullish
Stock Trends: Bullish
Winning Investing: Condition Red: Caution
Wishing Wealth: Up Trend
dshort.com: Invested (Note - monthly 10-EMA signal)
Click on Charts to Enlarge
SP-500 Daily Chart for January 22, 2011
SP-500 Daily Guppy Chart for January 22, 2011
Russell 2000 Daily Guppy Chart for January 22, 2011
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