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Weekly SP-500 Trend Commentary

|Includes: SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY)

*** Status: Market Bullish - Sector Funds ***

After the big increase of uncertainty as measured by the VIX last week, the VIX has now retreated back down to about 16 as the market has moved higher.  The SP-500 has moved through recent resistance at 1305 and is now sitting at this new support level. If we look at the weekly SP-500 chart, the next obvious resistance level is at ~1430  The general market trading filter I use (SP-500 53 day CCI) is at 122 indicating Market Up which is up significantly from 87 last week. My multiple composite SP-500 indicators on the daily chart are both positive also providing a bullish signal. As seen at the right the CCI(53) indicator is still positive for all the four major indexes.

The Guppy Plot for the SP-500 is bullish with the fast moving above the slow moving averages, and the average slope of the fast and slow moving averages positive. The ADX components are also bullish, after almost signaling bearish. In contrast, the Guppy Plot for the Russell 2000 has “recovered” somewhat with only the ADX components still bearish.

We’ll see what the next week brings. We don't try to forecast the market here, rather we just monitor the current conditions and react accordingly. This week there are two changes to model portfolios. We are no longer publishing updates to the Vanguard ETF Portfolio since it is published on Collective2. I hope you find this blog helpful. If you do, why not leave a comment.

Rankings:

This week's Rankings show Energy and Oil sector funds are now at the top with bond funds at the bottom of the rankings. Ranking scores are color coded to indicate positive ranking scores (rate of change / volatility) in green, and negative ranking scores in red. Overall the list is sorted by overall rank but the score that makes up the rank can be positive or negative depending on the recent rate of change. The full list of the funds that are ranked can be found under the Funds tab. Current Rankings of the Funds can be found under the Rankings tab.

Actions:

Sell BKPIX, and SCHV.

Buy OEPIX, and SMPIX

Model portfolios are listed here.

Performance (NOT including dividends):

Schwab: 7.00%  (SPY: 22.24%)

Exclusive Verified Trading System

Vanguard Free ETFs

Disclosure:

No positions at the time of this post.

What others are saying (all free sites): Overall Bullish

Advisory Sentiment: 53% Bullish / 22% Bearish

AAII Sentiment:  52% Bullish / 22% Neutral / 27% Bearish

Barchart: 100% Buy (last week 8%)

Bulkowski: Bullish (CPI=73% last week at 2%)

Buy-Don't Hold: Sell Signal (-4)

Consensus Traders: 56% Bullish (for SPY)

MTR Investors Market Timing Model: Market Up

My Trend Timer: Bullish

OneQTrades: Up Trend

Stock TA (NYSEARCA:SPY): Bullish

Stock Trends: Bullish

Winning Investing: Condition Red: Caution

Wishing Wealth: Up Trend

dshort.com: Invested (Note - monthly 10-EMA signal)

Click on Charts to Enlarge

 

SP-500 Daily Chart for February 6, 2011
SP-500 Daily Chart for February 6, 2011
SP-500 Weekly Chart for February 6, 2011
SP-500 Weekly Chart for February 6, 2011
SP-500 Daily Guppy Chart for February 6, 2011
SP-500 Daily Guppy Chart for February 6, 2011
Russell 2000 Daily Guppy Chart for February 6, 2011
Russell 2000 Daily Guppy Chart for February 6, 2011