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Weekly SP-500 Trend Commentary

|Includes: SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY)

*** Status: Market BearishBond Funds ***

This week the market continued lower with the SP-500 dropping below the 50 day moving average, but bouncing off a recent support area at ~1255.  The general market trading filter I use (SP-500 53 day CCI) is now negative at -68 indicating Market Down which is down from 10 last week. My multiple composite SP-500 indicators on the daily chart now mixed with the Composite score of MACD crossing zero now bearish. As seen at the right, the major indices are all bearish with the IEF bond fund bullish. What we surmised as a downtrend last week, continues lower.

The Guppy Plot for the SP-500 is bearish with the fast moving averages starting to cross under the slow moving averages. The average slopes of both the fast moving and slow moving averages are now negative. The ADX components are bearish, and the Stoch remain low.

We’ll see what the next week brings. We don't try to forecast the market here, rather we just monitor the current conditions and react accordingly. Please note we will no longer be publishing to our current model portfolios, but will soon publish model portfolios for long term investing. I hope you find this blog helpful. If you do, why not leave a comment.


This week's Rankings show Bond Funds are fully at the top with Energy mixed in. Ranking scores are color coded to indicate positive ranking scores (rate of change / volatility) in green, and negative ranking scores in red. Overall the list is sorted by overall rank but the score that makes up the rank can be positive or negative depending on the recent rate of change. The full list of the funds that are ranked can be found under the Funds tab. Current Rankings of the Funds can be found under the Rankings tab.


Long BND

What others are saying (all free sites): Overall Bearish

Advisory Sentiment: 52% Bullish / 22% Bearish

AAII Sentiment:  29% Bullish / 31% Neutral / 40% Bearish

Barchart: 16% Sell (last week 8% Buy)

Bulkowski: Neutral (CPI=50% last week 50%)

Buy-Don't Hold: Sell (-5)

Consensus Traders: 13% Bullish / 18% Neutral / 69% Bearish (for SPY)

MTR Investors Market Timing Model: Market Down

My Trend Timer: Bullish

OneQTrades: Down Trend

Stock TA (NYSEARCA:SPY): Neutral

Stock Trends: Bullish

Winning Investing: Condition Red: Caution Advised

Wishing Wealth: Down Trend Invested (Note - monthly 10-EMA signal)

Click on Charts to Enlarge


SP-500 Daily Chart for March 19, 2011
SP-500 Daily Chart for March 19, 2011
SP-500 Daily Guppy Chart for March 19, 2011
SP-500 Daily Guppy Chart for March 19, 2011