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Weekly SP-500 Trend Commentary

Apr. 22, 2011 7:43 PM ETSPY
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mybestfunds's Blog
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Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2010

I've been trading part time for 20 years working to develop a strategy that allows me to focus on my day job while investing for today and my retirement. I've been heavily influenced by Mebane Faber's book The Ivy Portfolio. I do not follow Faber's technique directly, but have developed my own relative strength sector rotation strategy that I describe on my blog at http://www.mybestfunds.com. In addition to weekly market trend commentary, I provide weekly rankings of selected Fidelity, Schwab, Profunds, and Vanguard mutual funds and ETFs. The funds are selected and traded so there are no commission or short term trading fees. Fidelity Funds are traded/rotate on a monthly basis while Schwab, Profunds and Vanguard funds trade on a weekly basis. In the future, I will share more details of my strategy including backtest results, as well as establish model portfolios.

*** Status: Market Cautiously Bullish – Sector Funds ***


For the second week in a row, the SP-500 gave a brief bearish signal via the CCI(53) and recovered.  The general market trading filter I use (SP-500 53 day CCI) is at 107 indicating Market Up which is up from 24 last week. Again the index bounced off the resistance level at ~1305, but it is still not clear where it is going from here. My multiple composite SP-500 indicators on the daily chart are bullish again with the Blau Ergodic Composite Indicator recently turned bullish, and the MACD composite still bullish.


The Guppy Plot for the SP-500 is Bullish, with the Fast moving averages turned back up and are now above the slower moving averages. The average slopes of both the fast moving and slow moving averages are again positive. The ADX components just crossed into a a bullish pattern and the Stoch is moving up.


We’ll see what the next week brings. We don't try to forecast the market here, rather we just monitor the current conditions and react accordingly. I hope you find this blog helpful. If you do, why not leave a comment.




This week's Rankings show a lot of “safe” sectors at the top such as Healthcare, and Telecomm.  Ranking scores are color coded to indicate positive ranking scores (rate of change / volatility) in green, and negative ranking scores in red. Overall the list is sorted by overall rank but the score that makes up the rank can be positive or negative depending on the recent rate of change. The full list of the funds that are ranked can be found under the Funds tab. Current Rankings of the Funds can be found under the Rankings tab.





What Others are Saying (all free sites): Overall Bullish

AAII Sentiment:  32% Bullish / 37% Neutral / 31% Bearish

Barchart: 96% Buy (last week 32% Buy)

Bulkowski: Bullish (CPI=90% last week 55%)

Consensus Traders: 46% Bullish / 21% Neutral / 32% Bearish (SPY)

Pattern Trapper: Bullish (SPY)

Stock TA (SPY): Neutral

Stock Trends: Bullish

Wishing Wealth: Up Trend

dshort.com: Invested (Note - monthly 10-EMA signal)


Click on Charts to Enlarge

SP-500 Daily Chart for April 22, 2011

SP-500 Daily Guppy Chart for April 22, 2011

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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