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Weekly SP-500 Trend Commentary

|Includes: SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY)

 *** Status: Market Bearish – Bond Funds ***

 
Last week we were at the top of the channel, and now we are mid-channel right at the 50 Day Moving Average. The general market trading filter I use (SP-500 53 day CCI) is at -5 indicating Market Down which is down from +64 last week. My multiple composite SP-500 indicators on the daily chart remain bullish with the Blau Ergodic Composite Indicator and the MACD composite indicating an up trend. The SP-500 index is range bound and is down ~4.2% from the recent May high of 1370. The CCI(53) indicator for all the indices on the right of this page that we follow are now quite mixed.
 
The Guppy Plot for the SP-500 is still Bullish, with the Fast moving above the Slow moving averages. Both the Slow and Fast Moving average sets are compressing, indicating sideways movement, which may be the prelude to a large move up or down soon. The average slope of Slow Moving Averages is barely positive, and the average slope of the Fast Moving Averages is negataive. The ADX components are barely bullish and the Stoch has dropped.
 
We’ll see what the next week brings. We don't try to forecast the market here, rather we just monitor the current conditions and react accordingly. I hope you find this blog helpful. If you do, why not leave a comment.
 
Rankings:
This week's Rankings are now showing primarily Bond Funds at the top which in itself is a bearish indicator.  Ranking scores are color coded to indicate positive ranking scores (rate of change / volatility) in green, and negative ranking scores in red. Overall the list is sorted by overall rank but the score that makes up the rank can be positive or negative depending on the recent rate of change. The full list of the funds that are ranked can be found under the Funds tabCurrent Rankings of the Funds can be found under the Rankings tab.
 
What Others are Saying (all free sites): Overall Mixed
AAII Sentiment:  39% Bullish / 31% Neutral / 29% Bearish
Barchart: 16% Sell (last week 48% Buy)
Bulkowski: Neutral (CPI= 54% - last week 81%)
Buy-Don't Hold: Buy (4)
Consensus Traders: 27% Bullish / 23% Neutral / 51% Bearish (NYSEARCA:SPY)
Derek HernquistWeakness
Mark MinerviniBuy Signal
MyPlanIQ Trend Score6.12(SPY 8.31% last week) 
10 DMA New High - New Low RatioBullish (see Chris Perruna for explanation)
Pattern TrapperBearish (SPY)
Stock TA (SPY): Neutral
Stock TrendsBullish
Wishing WealthUp Trend
dshort.com: Invested (Note - monthly 10-EMA signal)
 
 
 
Click on Charts to Enlarge
SP-500 Daily Chart for July 16, 2011

SP-500 Daily Guppy Chart for July 16, 2011