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Weekly SP-500 Trend Commentary

|Includes: SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY)

see more at mybestfunds.com

*** Status: Market Bullish – Sector/Index Funds ***
 
The SP-500 Index continued up this week and we are now again at the ~1225 resistance level. This time we have several indicators flashing bullishness, but is it truly different than the times we approached this level in the past. I looked back at the Vanguard ETF rankings for the previous times we recently approached this level (8/31 & 9/16 – Bond Funds ranked highest). This time we have several Sector Funds highly ranked and the Bond Funds have dropped. We may now be at the beginning of a new bull move.
 
  The general market trading filter I use (SP-500 53 day CCI) is at +104 indicating Market Up which is up from -48 last week. My multiple composite SP-500 indicators on the daily chart are both now Bullish with the Blau Ergodic Composite Indicator bullish and the MACD composite indicating an up trend. The SP-500 index is down ~12% from the recent May high of 1370. The CCI(53) indicator for all the indices on the right of this page are now mainly bullish with the exception of the IEF bond ETF and the Junk Bond Fund JNK.
 
The Guppy Plot for the SP-500 Index is transitioning, with the Fast moving averages starting to cross over the Slow moving averages. The average slope of the Fast Moving Averages is now positive, as is my main indicator, the average slope of the Slow Moving Averages. The ADX components are now bullish, and the Stoch has moved up.
 
We’ll see what the next week brings. We don't try to forecast the market here, rather we just monitor the current conditions and react accordingly. I hope you find this blog helpful. If you do, why not leave a comment.
 
Rankings:
This week's Rankings continue have transitioned to have Sector and Index Funds at the top.  Ranking scores are color coded to indicate positive ranking scores (rate of change / volatility) in green, and negative ranking scores in red. Overall the list is sorted by overall rank but the score that makes up the rank can be positive or negative depending on the recent rate of change. The full list of the funds that are ranked can be found under the Funds tabCurrent Rankings of the Funds can be found under the Rankings tab.
 
What Others are Saying (all free sites): Overall Bullish
AAII Sentiment 40% Bullish / 24% Neutral / 36% Bearish
Investors Intelligence: 34% Bullish / 46% Bearish
Barchart: 24% Buy (last week 72% Sell)
Bulkowski: Bullish (CPI= 99% - last week 80%)
Buy-Don't Hold: Buy (4)
Consensus Traders: 55% Bullish / 21% Neutral / 24% Bearish (NYSEARCA:SPY)
MyPlanIQ Trend Score: -0.52% (SPY -5.08% last week) 
10 DMA New High - New Low RatioBearish (see Chris Perruna for explanation)
Pattern TrapperBullish (SPY)
Stock TA (SPY): Neutral
Stock TrendsBearish
Wishing WealthUp Trend
TheWizard: Less Bearish (SP-500 Long Term Signal)
dshort.com: Cash (Note - monthly SP-500 10-EMA signal)
 
Click on Charts to Enlarge

SP-500 Daily Chart for October 15, 2011

SP-500 Daily Guppy Chart for October 15, 2011