*** Status: Market Bullish/Caution – Sector/Index Funds ***
The SP-500 had a losing week falling down below the recent support at ~1225 but staying just above the 50 day simple moving average. The general market trading filter I use (SP-500 53 day CCI) is at +23 indicating Market Up which is down from +107 last week. However, many of the other sites I follow (below) are now bearish - so caution is indicated. My multiple composite SP-500 indicators on the daily chart are both Bullish, but both are dropping, with the Blau Ergodic Composite Indicator bullish and the MACD composite indicating an up trend. The SP-500 index is down ~12.4% from the recent May high of 1370. The CCI(53) indicators for all the indices on the right of this page have all dropped and the NDX is now negative. Caution is the key message of the day.
The Guppy Plot for the SP-500 Index is bullish, but the Fast Moving Averages have crossed over themselves and are heading down, while the Slow Moving Averages are starting to turn down. The average slope of the Fast Moving Averages dropped to negative, and now my main indicator, the average slope of the Slow Moving Averages is also negative. The ADX components are bearish, and the Stoch has turned down.
We’ll see what the next week brings. We don't try to forecast the market here, rather we just monitor the current conditions and react accordingly. I hope you find this blog helpful. If you do, why not leave a comment.
This week's Rankings now show a mix of Sector and Bond Funds at the top which indicates caution. Ranking scores are color coded to indicate positive ranking scores (rate of change / volatility) in green, and negative ranking scores in red. Overall the list is sorted by overall rank but the score that makes up the rank can be positive or negative depending on the recent rate of change. The full list of the funds that are ranked can be found under the Funds tab. Current Rankings of the Funds can be found under the Rankings tab.
What Others are Saying (all free sites): Overall Bearish
AAII Sentiment: 42% Bullish / 27% Neutral / 31% Bearish
Investors Intelligence: 47% Bullish / 33% Bearish
Barchart: 16% Sell (last week 56% Buy)
Bulkowski: Bearish (CPI= 18% - last week 98%)
Buy-Don't Hold: Sell (1)
MTR Investors Market Timing Model: Market Down
MyPlanIQ Trend Score: -0.37% (SPY +2.38% last week)
Stock Trends: Bearish
Wishing Wealth: Down Trend (GMI-2)
TheWizard: Less Bullish (SP-500 Long Term Signal)
dshort.com: Invested (Note - monthly SP-500 10-EMA signal)
Click on Charts to Enlarge
|SP-500 Daily Chart for November 19, 2011|
|SP-500 Daily Guppy Chart for November 19, 2011|