Weekly SP-500 Trend Commentary
Jan. 16, 2012 11:32 AM ETSPY
mybestfunds's Blog
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Contributor Since 2010
I've been trading part time for 20 years working to develop a strategy that allows me to focus on my day job while investing for today and my retirement. I've been heavily influenced by Mebane Faber's book The Ivy Portfolio. I do not follow Faber's technique directly, but have developed my own relative strength sector rotation strategy that I describe on my blog at http://www.mybestfunds.com. In addition to weekly market trend commentary, I provide weekly rankings of selected Fidelity, Schwab, Profunds, and Vanguard mutual funds and ETFs. The funds are selected and traded so there are no commission or short term trading fees. Fidelity Funds are traded/rotate on a monthly basis while Schwab, Profunds and Vanguard funds trade on a weekly basis.
In the future, I will share more details of my strategy including backtest results, as well as establish model portfolios.
*** Status: Market Bullish – Sector Funds ***
Another positive week with the SP-500 up 0.88% for the week. It is still above the 200 day moving average, and moving above the recent support/resistance at 1264. The general market trading filter I use (SP-500 53 day CCI) is now at +122 indicating Market Up which is up from +119 last week. My multiple composite SP-500 indicators on the daily chart remain mixed, with the Blau Ergodic Composite Indicator just barely bearish and the MACD composite bullish. The SP-500 index is down ~5.9% from the recent May high of 1370. The CCI indicators at the right give a good indication of the market. At this time we see all bullish even bonds (IEF).
The Guppy Plot for the SP-500 Index is quite Bullishl. The Fast Moving Averages are now above the Slow Moving Averages. The average slope of the Fast Moving Averages and the average slope of the Slow Moving Averages, are both now positive again. The ADX components are bullish, and the Stoch has moved up.
We’ll see what the next week brings. We don't try to forecast the market here, rather we just monitor the current conditions and react accordingly. I hope you find this blog helpful. If you do, why not leave a comment.
Rankings:
This week's Rankings are showing Sector Funds at the top which indicates a more bullish market but with some Bond funds mixed in. Ranking scores are color coded to indicate positive ranking scores (rate of change / volatility) in green, and negative ranking scores in red. Overall the list is sorted by overall rank but the score that makes up the rank can be positive or negative depending on the recent rate of change. The full list of the funds that are ranked can be found under the Funds tab. Current Rankings of the Funds can be found under the Rankings tab.
What Others are Saying (all free sites): Overall Bullish-Neutral
AAII Sentiment: -% Bullish / -% Neutral / -% Bearish (no update this week)
Investors Intelligence: 51% Bullish / 30% Bearish
Barchart: 96% Buy (last week 96% Buy)
Bulkowski: Bearish (CPI= 20% - last week 50%)
Buy-Don't Hold: Buy (3)
Consensus Traders: 65% Bullish / 15% Neutral / 20% Bearish (SPY)
MTR Investors Market Timing Model: Market Up
MyPlanIQ Trend Score: +2.26% (SPY +2.3% last week)
10 DMA New High - New Low Ratio: Bullish (see Chris Perruna for explanation)
Nasdaq New High - New Low Cumulative: barely Bearish (see recent post)
NYSE New High - New Low Cumulative: Bullish (see recent post)
US Stock New High - New Low Cumulative: Bullish (see recent post)
Pattern Trapper: Neutral (SPY)
SP-100: Bullish (see dshort.com)
Stock TA (SPY): Neutral
Stock Trends: Weak Bearish
TimelySetup: Neutral
Wishing Wealth: Market Up (GMI-2 = 6/6)
TheWizard: Very Bullish (SP-500 Long Term Signal)
dshort.com: Invested (Note - monthly SP-500 10-EMA signal)
Click on Charts to Enlarge
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| SP-500 Daily Chart for January 15, 2012 |
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| SP-500 Daily Guppy Chart for January 15, 2012 |