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The Remarkable Google Recession Fear Indicator

An analysis of global Google search volume for the term "recession" reveals a promising new recession indicator that nailed the official NBER start of the 2008 great recession to within 2 weeks of its peak.

It is also interesting to note the spike in mid-to-late August 2011 (around the time the SP-500 bottom that was forming), and subsequent fall in the RecessionAlert SuperIndex around the time new recessionary fears peaked.

It is unfortunate we do not have history going further back on this indicator but it looks very promising as a "fear gauge" worth monitoring in the future.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.