Am I supposed to be in some kind of denial about Apple? Every blogger and his mother has some form of negative article about Apple. MarketWatch can not publish single positive article about Apple. Everywhere where I look is someone writing something negative about Apple. And yet when this all started I didn't see any significant change in Apple fundamentals. Actually only thing I am seeing is sentiment about Apple changing due to this constant bombardment of negative press. And of course with this changing sentiment sales must be influenced and reflect all this negativity. I still don't understand how investors think that 140 billion pound gorilla is not going to strike back at some point. Did Android gain market share? Yeah, sure. But the smart phone market pie grew too. All of the mobile phones are going to be smart phones at some point. Tablets are the same thing. Growing pie. And there are no smart TVs in living rooms yet. But it is a well known fact that Apple is hard at work on one and that Apple has a history of successfully disrupting the markets. Did you really think that iWatch is about watches?
Here is what I am betting will happen. Apple's big cross (50 day MA) was lowered from $480 to under $470. $465.14 as of Friday to be precise. This means that AAPL will become "magnetic" to this cross around $450 on dailies. Magnetic just means that approaching certain milestones like supports, resistances, 50 and 200 day moving averages as well some others makes traders to take protective steps or position themselves for an opportunity. Since AAPL has been suppressed for so long magnetic here means increasing number of short sellers covering and taking profit while increasing number of long investors that had been waiting on sidelines for trend change to begin loading in as we are approaching 50 day MA. That is around $7 away from here. So I am going to bet that AAPL can make it from here to $450. If for nothing else then because nobody expects it to anymore. If it can make it from here to $450 I am betting that other speculators will consider possibility of breaking big cross which should be between $460-$465 by then. I am in October 13 450 calls.
pricestamp: AAPL was at time of this article $443.66
Disclosure: I am long AAPL.