AS I wrote last week in my short post, this week we had a TD SELL 9 signal on NDX. If this week NDX falls, even slightly, we'll have a confirmed sell signal. Basically the signal is below 2640.
Target? Around 2440 could be a nice correction. It's the 2011 high.
There's also a open gap around 2300.
Another support could be at 2500 (other gap).
Last week we had also 1 distribution day on major indexes. That's nothing worrying because these distributions days are normal in bull markets. They become worrying when we have 3-5 of them in few days, therefore let's see if next week we have other of them.
Basically I can see some risk aversion signal coming up monitoring various markets: in Europe the Bund future is strong, but also italian BTP are. That's a contrasting signal, because one should expect that the 2 assets move in opposite way. But BTp could be "drugged" by short covering.
gold and silver sold off last week after Bernanke's words. In recent months, precious metals sold off in line with risky assets.
Leaders stocks are midex. we have a lot of TD13 sell signal on daily basis on major stocks.
In Europe stocks markets are volatile, but German is strong.
In summary: last week we have some signals of pause in the bull market plus a technical sell weekly signal on NDX and daily TD13 sell on important stocks.
On other assets the situations shows uncertain, maybe institutional are going defensive waiting for the result of Greek PSI.
We could have a situation on correction or consolidation in the future.
At the moment I am almost 100% cash, with a put sold on snam rete gas, an high dividend italian utility stock.
In coming weeks I'm planning to buy something if strength return, or buying in the correction because of Bernanke put in the market.
I plan to buy gold and silver on the weakness or if they stabilize after last week correction.