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Predictions for The BULL CYCLE

Nice rally but that is not “The One”. I wouldn’t be surprised if we breathe for a bit, but oddly enough, too many people are expecting things to settle down and as such I attach I higher probability to another smaller rally today. Further gains in general, this month will be made in gaps. Yesterday’s rally was not the Neo Rally I have been blogging about. That was just a tremor foretelling of what is to come. All the signs are pointing to a Flash Dash. A move that scares the piss out of the shorts. A move that starts like today but ends with a gap up that is so dramatic that it exhausts us by the end of the day. It will occur when we least expect it. Could be tomorrow could be next week but we are within months of it. It will convince even many of the greatest bears that we are at the beginning of a bull cycle that I believe will run longer than any we have seen in history. It will no be driven by fictitious Internet company valuations but by concrete systemic shifts in our society. It will be a decade where we will relieve ourselves of much of our dependency on oil. A decade where advance in the biotech field will extend life spans well beyond historical average annual increases. More than 1/3rd of the job market will consist of industry and opportunities that did not exist 10 years ago. We have only scratched the surface of globalization. The Internet is still in its infancy stages. Face book, ITunes, and Netflix are but small steps forward in what will be a life dominated by Internet activity. Children’s homework, Family’s groceries, and Individual Banking simply scratch the surface of the power that the Internet offers. The world will make evolutionary strides exponentially over the next decade, as the Internet will manifest itself as a form of collective intelligence, a gathering of ideas and a communal process of solving problems. The European Debt crisis will actually strengthen the Union in the long run. The crisis has forced the continent to solve a systemic cultural problem that has been a century in the making. While I don’t believe Obama will see a second term, I do believe that both political parties have learned much theses last 3 years. Many Politicians will no longer take for granted the support of their constituents, or risk the end of their political career, though they will find ample opportunity to host a cable talk show. Kim Jong-Il, Castro and Osama bin Laden will die (that may have actually already happened already), Ahmadinejad will retire to his condo in Miami and convert to Judaism. Extremists will find themselves isolated as the Middle East will have to resign them selves to being significantly more integrated into the global economy as the world’s dependency on oil abates.  These are just a handful of my predictions. Most importantly though, I have spent the last few months speaking at numerous universities to the generation of doers, and I am happy to report that they are anxious to get out there and improve the world. Many of them will. I can always tell the winners at the starting gate, and I have met quite a few winners.

Disclosure: none