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I’m Bullish Until I See a Real Battle

I know, you’re sick of this bull market.  It doesn’t make sense.  We’re up too much on the year.  We’re up too much since the September rally.  But I stick by my views from my last blog: Could This Rally Possibly Take Us to 1498 on the Spooz? Please read the blog before jumping to conclusions based on the title of it.  I let go of my market pull back theory in late January (see my blog from then when I said I was bullish for the month of February) when I was annoyed that the market didn’t pull back despite the odds pointing clearly to the downside that month.  One of my strengths is not that I don’t get hung up on one notion/theory.  I’m quick to admit when I am wrong and very open to alternatives, no matter what subject we’re talking about.  

Please take a thorough look back on the daily and name all the times we’ve had lasting sell offs that came “out of nowhere.”  True sell offs happen over the course of a few days, at least, to several months.  This is not the first time I’ve said that.  I noted in the past that corrections following 52 weeks highs tend to be preceded by at least a few days of battling between the bulls and the bears.  The market trades in a range for a few days before the real pull back move occurs.  I was looking for some good shorts that I could build into last week.  Playing to the short side is inherently more difficult than to the long side.  Today I was reminded again that shorting is not easy.  Of course, researching for good shorts, especially in anticipation of a correction, is good practice.  But for now my pressing need to find shorts has been put on hold.  I am great at being a bear, but again, I will say that until I see the market struggling at a level for a few days, I am not willing to jump over to the short side.



Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.