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Sellers Sit on Skyworks

 HedgeFundLIVE- Skyworks (NASDAQ:SWKS) is a name that came up on our heavy volume decliners scan yesterday and is a name we started shorting around noon that same day.  The name ended the day down 3.45% at $27.74.  In this scan were not worrying much about the news were just focused on price action but for this blog I thought I clue everyone in on why the stock is getting killed the last few days.

4/6/2011 - Charter Equity analyst Edward Snyder, who said Skyworks would get a lot less money from Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) for its parts in the next iPhone than it has for past iPhone iterations.

  • SKWS closes the day down 7%.

4/7/2011 - Deutsche Bank’s Jonathan Goldberg today comes to the company’s defense, writing that nothing is certain at this point about who Apple will choose for an iPhone 5, and probably won’t be certain until at least the end of this month, if, indeed, the company is target a September introduction, as the rumor mill is suggesting.

Moreover, Goldberg expects Skyworks to hold onto a lot of business it’s won in the iPhone: “In the first three iPhones, SWKS had the 2G PA sockets. In iPhone 4 they picked up about a third of the 3G sockets, and in the CDMA iPhone they gained most of the rest of those. Our estimate is that they would likely hold onto the 2G sockets and potentially give up some but not all of the 3G share.” Maybe, he thinks, Triquint (TQNT) has won back some business, but Triquint itself has constraints con capacity and certain “contractual obligations,” he thinks.

To reflect risk from from Japan’s supply chain disruptions, Goldberg trimmed Skyworks’s Q3 by $1 million to $339 million in revenue, and trims EPS by a penny to 41 cents per share.

Goldberg reiterated a Buy recommendation on Skyworks shares, and a $40 price target.

  • SWKS bounces off the lows but still closes down 3%.

Thoughts

  • Stock got killed early, slightly rebounded and then closed down 3%.  Price action is indicating to me the stock is still weak and I doubled the value of my short position today on the continued weakness.
  • I’ll keep my stop at the high of 4/7.
  • SWKS has been bid up ever since ATHR was taken out.
  • This news is negative and I expect relative weakness until this rumor becomes fact or fiction.
  • My first target to the downside is around $25, which is the 200 SMA on the daily chart.

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