For my taste, the valuation looks very solid and a lot of in-depth research has flown into this. Comparing this with my own valuation, resulting in a price target of 21-28 USD, we are in the same ballpark, with the following notable differences:
- comparable revenue trajectory until 2021, then Sphene Capital assumes continued growth from EPP (non-US, non-Europe)
- No valuation of Vitiligo potential (8-18 USD/share in my valuation)
- more accurate representation of tax shield from historic losses
- more accurate modeling of WACC (varying assumptions over time, taking cumulating cash pile and maturing company into account
Read the full study here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/16065.pdf
The company will publish figures for the quarter ending Dec 31, 2017 tonight (Feb 1, 2018). The historic KPIs look as following:
Disclosure: I am/we are long CLVLY.