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Long&Short Ideas Update From Nov 29th

How did last week's Pattern analysis fare?

First stock was Five Networks (NASDAQ:FFIV). It had a 52% chance of higher first day, a 59% chance of finishing higher after the second day and a 46% chance of holding a gain after five days. It opened the day after the Pattern at $134.67 and finished at $134.18 at the end of the first day. By the second day it closed down at $131.88 before rallying back to $139.28 by Friday's close.

Second on the list was Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). This was the most common of the Patterns matched with a mildly bearish outlook - although the % win outlook over the 5 days was around 50:50 (1-day: 49%, 2-day: 48% and 5-day: 47%). The stock opened at $315.49 and closed that day at $316.87. By the end of the second day it was down at $311.15, but powered higher for the rest of week to finish at $317.44.

Deckers Outdoor (NASDAQ:DECK) was the first Pattern to have a true negative outlook (1-day: 38%, 2-day: 28%, 5-day: 46%). But instead, it went against Pattern history. Opening Monday at $73.30 and never looking back; it was up to $76.90 at the end of the second day and closed Friday at $82.88. One the PatternDNA got wrong.

There was no historic match for Salesforce (NYSE:CRM). The next three matches were for much rarer Patterns which limited the number of historic matches which could be inferred from.

First of these was Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG). It had a clear trend for a weak start before gaining over the five days (1-day: 38%, 2-day: 58%, 5-day: 72%). The stock opened Monday at $254.74 and closed $257.01. On the second day it closed at $258.49 but a downgrade on Friday took the wind out of its sails as it finished the week at $235.95. After a promising start it got caught out in the end.

Second was Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN). Of all the matches it had by far the strongest outlook going forward (1-day: 83%, 2-day: 83% and 5-day: 91%) with a cumulative annualized return of 16.6% trading the Pattern in combination with a Target&Stop. Unfortunately, this never got last week's groove. It opened $179.99 and finished the first day at $179.49. But it continued to drift lower, finishing at $176.55 by the end of day two and was down at $175.68 by Friday's close.

The final match was for Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX). With only 4 historic matches there was not a great deal to work with. Of those Patterns, only one was higher after the second day. None finished higher by the fifth day. It opened Monday at $194.01 and rallied to reach $198.92 at the end of the first day and $205.90 by the second day. But three days of selling left it at languishing at $185.45 - well off the $194.01 of Monday. It played to Pattern form - albeit from a very small sample size.

Not the brightest start for the PatternDNA. AMZN had the clearest projection - although the low number of historic matches played up its success. DECK, with its 76 matches should have offered more and it was the real miss of the week.