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2018 Results

Summary

The 2018 returns of the portfolios that I published in late 2017 are summarized.

Annual Portfolios

Here are the YTD total returns of the annual portfolios that I published in December 2017 for 2018.

Select Funds

-6.50%

Utilities

6.95%

Nasdaq 12

-9.52%

Nasdaq 12 Hedged

-6.37%

Contra momentum

5.24%

QLD/UBT

-7.86%

Five Fund Leveraged

-5.04%

Average (With NASD 12)

-2.85%

Average (With NASD 12 Hedged)

-2.33%

SPY (1/2/2018-12/31/2018) Benchmark

-5.25%

Other portfolios that I follow for the long term:

Permanent Portfolio of DG Stocks

0.03%

The Dress, Drink, and Drive Portfolio

6.04%

Nine US Water Companies

5.47%

Quarterly Portfolios

Risk Parity

-7.54%

Dual Momentum Balanced Fund

8.38%

Dual Momentum Select Funds

-10.84%

Select Fund Momentum

-15.20%

Naive Graham

Market (VTI/TLT)

-4.06%

Mid-Cap Value (IJJ/TLT)

-9.38%

Small-Cap Value (IJS/TLT)

-9.83%

iShares Value

-8.21%

iShares Growth

-3.10%

Fidelity Value

-11.86%

Fidelity Growth

-3.25%

Guggenheim Value

-14.47%

Guggenheim Growth

-7.25%

Vanguard Value

-7.79%

Vanguard Growth

-3.90%

Leveraged

-13.36%

Equal Weight Value and Growth Naive Graham

iShares

-5.65%

Fidelity

-7.55%

Guggenheim

-10.86%

Vanguard

-5.84%

Balanced Fund Benchmarks (1/2/2018-12/31/2018)

FBALX

-4.62%

VWELX

-3.80%

VWINX

-2.54%

Notes on 2018 Returns

Among the annual portfolios, only utilities, contra-momentum and five fund leveraged have yielded better total returns than SPY. However, equal investment in each strategy either with NASDAQ 12 or with NASDAQ 12 hedged has yielded better return than SPY (though, disappointingly, both have yielded losses for the year).

All the all equity portfolios (permanent portfolio of DG stocks, the Dress, Drink, and Drive Portfolio, and the nine US water companies) have yielded better returns than SPY, though there is no net gain in the DG portfolio.

Only the iShares, Fidelity and Vanguard growth funds based Naive Graham have done better than FBALX.

Among the other quarterly portfolios only the dual momentum strategy based on FBALX has done better than the balance fund benchmarks. This strategy has, indeed, done substantially better than all the other strategies that I have followed.

Cumulative Out of Sample Returns

Portfolio

Date of Inception

Return since inception

Benchmark

Benchmark Return

Annual Portfolios[1]

1/2/2015

42.70%

SPY

31.80%

Nasdaq 12

1/2/2015

76.50%

QQQ

55.30%

Permanent DG

2/14/2013

108.10%

SCHD[2]

84.00%

Dress, Drink, and Drive

4/16/2016

35.00%

SPY

27.00%

Select Fund Momentum

1/4/2013

83.30%

SPY

92.30%

iShares Naive Graham[3]

7/1/2014

24.71%

FBALX

24.38%

[1] The annual portfolios were published here , here, here, and here.

[2] Among the dividend based ETFS, to wit, VIG, DVY, VDIGX, SDY, VYM, DLN, SCHD, SPHD, FVD, FDL and QDF, SCHD had the highest total return since the inception of my permanent portfolio of DG stocks, and hence it is used as the benchmark here.

[3] The returns are shown for equal weight iShares value and iShares growth