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Forecast Model Pick Melco Crown Entertainment (MPEL,$MPEL) Up 20% in 19 Days

Jan. 05, 2011 2:37 PM ETMLCO
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Steve Hach's Blog
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January 5, 2010
ATTENTION Advanced Investors and Finance Professionals:
If you are reading this you should download ValuEngine Institutional Software to see how VE’s powerful quantitative tools can increase your productivity and effectiveness.

VALUATION WATCH: Our models find that overvaluation is approaching levels typically seen when a market correction is imminent. Overvalued stocks now make up almost 63% of our universe and 30% of the universe is calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more.  15 of 16 Sectors are now calculated to be overvalued.

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This Bet Paid Off

Forecast Model Pick Melco Crown Entertainment (MPEL,$MPEL) Up 20% in 19 Days

  Today we provide info on yet a recent success story from our Forecast Model.  When we completed our last re-balance of the ValuEngine Forecast Model Market Neutral Strategy Portfolio Newsletter, subscribers received two picks from the Consumer Discretionary Sector. 

  The first pick, Hyatt Hotels (H) is up more than 5%.  The second pick,

Melco Crown Entertainment (MPEL) is an owner and developer of casino gaming and entertainment resort facilities focused on the market found in Macau. Since being selected as one of our top two stocks in the sector 19 days ago, Melco Crown Entertainment is up more than 21%. 

  Currently, ValuEngine maintains its BUY recommendation for Melco Crown Entertainment. Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that Melco Crown Entertainment has the probability to OUTPERFORM average market performance for the next year. The company exhibits ATTRACTIVE momentum, company size and expected EPS growth.

  Based on available data as of Jan. 05, 2011, we believe that MPEL should be trading at $6.16. This makes MPEL 7.65% overvalued. Fair Value indicates what we believe the stock should be trading at today if the stock market were perfectly efficient and everything traded at its true worth. For MPEL, we base this on actual earnings per share (EPS) for the previous four quarters of -$0.15, forecasted EPS for the next four quarters of -$0.05, and correlations to the 30- year Treasury bond yield of 4.40%.

  Subscribers can check out the latest figures on MPEL from our models HERE.  You can always screen for top-forecast stocks using our VE software package or our website. 

Seeking Alpha Readers should check out our Seeking Alpha VE Investment App HERE


Market Indices Data
  Latest Change YTD
Dow Jones
11,733.90 42.76 1.35%
NASDAQ Composite
2,697.01 15.76 1.66%
Russell 2000
791.51 5.68 1.00%
S&P 500
1,276.09 5.89 1.47%


ValuEngine Market Overview
Summary of VE Stock Universe
Stocks Undervalued
Stocks Overvalued
Stocks Undervalued by 20%
Stocks Overvalued by 20%


ValuEngine Sector Overview
Sector Change MTD YTD Valuation Last 12-MReturn P/E Ratio
Basic Materials -1.74% -1.62% -1.62% 32.03% overvalued 63.36% 37.73
Oils-Energy -0.97% -0.91% -0.91% 26.81% overvalued 33.45% 41.74
Industrial Products -0.84% -0.76% -0.76% 16.92% overvalued 28.74% 26.47
Multi-Sector Conglomerates -0.75% -0.71% -0.71% 16.45% overvalued 31.28% 30.10
Auto-Tires-Trucks -0.27% -0.17% -0.17% 15.67% overvalued 47.56% 26.33
Transportation -0.67% -0.61% -0.61% 13.89% overvalued 27.09% 42.85
Consumer Staples -0.71% -0.63% -0.63% 11.17% overvalued 16.33% 27.80
Retail-Wholesale -1.53% -1.42% -1.42% 10.14% overvalued 59.31% 22.14
Computer and Technology -0.52% -0.37% -0.37% 9.40% overvalued 31.72% 44.19
Aerospace -0.36% -0.32% -0.32% 9.33% overvalued 31.14% 19.95
Finance -0.98% -0.91% -0.91% 8.71% overvalued 17.98% 25.20
Utilities -0.42% -0.40% -0.40% 8.23% overvalued 12.07% 25.52
Business Services -0.61% -0.50% -0.50% 7.22% overvalued 17.89% 29.89
Construction -1.55% -1.47% -1.47% 7.16% overvalued 10.29% 38.15
Consumer Discretionary -0.98% -0.90% -0.90% 6.24% overvalued 23.38% 31.45
Medical -0.58% -0.49% -0.49% 2.63% undervalued 17.35% 37.72


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