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ValuEngine Weekly, January 28, 2011




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January 28, 2011
The ValuEngine Weekly is an Investor Education newsletter focused on the quantitative approach to investing and the tools available from ValuEngine. In today's fast-moving and globalized financial markets, it is easy to get overloaded with information. The winners will adopt an objective, scientific, independent and unemotional approach to investing. If you are not yet a member of ValuEngine's stock analysis service, sign up now for a two-week free trial at!

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VALUATION WATCH:  Our models find that overvaluation is approaching levels typically seen when a market correction is imminent. Overvalued stocks now make up 64% of our universe and 30% of the universe is calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more.  ALL Sectors are now calculated to be overvalued.

  Bonus for Readers
--Free Individual Stock Report for Weekly Newsletter Subscribers

 As a bonus to our Free Weekly Newsletter subscribers, we are now offering a FREE DOWNLOAD of one of our $ 25.00 Detailed Valuation Reports.  

  This week's free download is our report on Pain Therapeutics (PTIE, $PTIE).   ValuEngine has issued a STRONG BUY recommendation for Pain Therapeutics on Jan. 28, 2011. Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that Pain Therapeutics has the probability to OUTPERFORM average market performance for the next year. The company exhibits ATTRACTIVE expected EPS growth, momentum and market valuation.

  Based on available data as of today, we believe that PTIE should be trading at $7.444. This makes PTIE 14.20% undervalued. Fair Value indicates what we believe the stock should be trading at today if the stock market were perfectly efficient and everything traded at its true worth. For PTIE, we base this on actual earnings per share (NYSEARCA:EPS) for the previous four quarters of -$0.11, forecasted EPS for the next four quarters of $0.25, and correlations to the 30- year Treasury bond yield of 4.56%.

 When we recently screened for top-ranked stocks in both short and long-term forecast projections that had a minimum share price of $3.00 and average daily volume of 100k shares/day, PTIE finished third in our results.  The long-term forecast figures are very impressive and lead to the ticker's rating of STRONG BUY.  The one-year forecast figure ranks in the top 1% of our universe of more than 5500 stocks.

  Pain Therapeutics is developing a new generation of opioid painkillers. Opioids are drugs derived from the poppy plant. The company uses technology to reformulate opioid drugs, such as morphine, into new painkillers with improved clinical benefits. The company has four opioid painkillers in Phase II clinical trials. The company believes its drugs offer enhanced pain relief, fewer adverse side effects and reduced tolerance and addiction compared to existing opioid painkillers. 

  Yesterday,  Pain Therapeutics, Inc. announced that the U.S. FDA has accepted a New Drug Application resubmission for REMOXY.  REMOXY is designed to provide steady, around-the-clock pain relief, while resisting common methods of tampering intended to result in the rapid release of oxycodone. 

  Subscribers can check out the latest figures on Pain Therapeutics from our models HERE.   Not a ValuEngine Premium Website member?  Then please consider signing up for our no obligation, two-week free trial today. 

Weekly Subscribers can download a FREE Detailed Valuation Report on PTIE HERE.

If you have not subscribed and want to be able to receive a FREE $ 25.00 Detailed Valuation Report, you can subscribe to our Free Weekly Newsletter HERE.


ValuEngine Index Overview
Week Open
Thurs. Close
% Change
11873.5 11989.8 116.3 0.98% 2.43%
2693.03 2755.28 62.25 2.31% 1.54%
773.71 795.43 21.72 2.81% -0.67%
S&P 500
1283.29 1299.54 16.25 1.27% 1.95%
ValuEngine Market Overview
Summary of VE Stock Universe
Stocks Undervalued
Stocks Overvalued
Stocks Undervalued by 20%
Stocks Overvalued by 20%


ValuEngine Sector Overview
Last 12-MReturn
P/E Ratio
Oils-Energy 0.15% 2.99% 2.99% 29.35% overvalued 39.60% 48.06
Basic Materials -1.08% -3.71% -3.71% 18.77% overvalued 52.64% 39.26
Auto-Tires-Trucks 1.69% 3.01% 3.01% 18.02% overvalued 42.91% 20.77
Multi-Sector Conglomerates 0.24% 4.79% 4.79% 17.97% overvalued 40.05% 35.08
Business Services 0.23% 2.74% 2.74% 14.94% overvalued 22.34% 33.27
Transportation 0.21% -0.15% -0.15% 14.65% overvalued 31.19% 28.52
Industrial Products 0.07% 1.48% 1.48% 13.97% overvalued 34.07% 32.78
Computer and Technology 0.37% 10.09% 3.97% 11.99% overvalued 39.49% 37.52
Aerospace 0.19% 4.80% 4.80% 11.58% overvalued 37.90% 19.22
Finance 0.47% 1.65% 1.65% 9.10% overvalued 19.73% 28.28
Utilities -0.14% 0.79% 0.79% 8.64% overvalued 18.67% 20.69
Retail-Wholesale 0.34% -0.66% -0.66% 8.19% overvalued 28.96% 26.73
Consumer Staples -0.34% 0.38% 0.38% 7.24% overvalued 20.88% 24.85
Consumer Discretionary 0.35% 0.54% 0.54% 6.50% overvalued 25.27% 31.00
Construction -0.32% 4.73% 4.73% 4.32% overvalued 17.76% 29.91
Medical 0.10% 2.82% 2.82% 0.31% overvalued 20.10% 36.06
  Sector Talk--Transportation

   Transportation has been in the news for a variety of reasons of late.  Good news for some airlines continues as the major carriers reap the rewards of the numerous fees, hedging schemes, and capacity changes implemented in the wake of the big jump in fuel costs from a few years ago.  Recent ticket price increases seem to have more staying power as even low-cost giant Southwest has fallen in line.

 On the other hand, bad news has been the rule for maritime bulk shippers as the Baltic Dry Bulk Index amply illustrates.  This time around rising commodities costs don't seem to help the shippers as they suffer from a big jump in capacity as additional carriers --ordered near the end of the bubble back in 2006-2008--are now completed. 

 Below, we present top-five lists for the Transportation Sector from our Institutional software package (VEI).  These results were filtered by market price and volume--no results below 3$/share or less than 100k shares/day.  Investors beware, while our models have been quite astute with airline stocks for months now, the crazy action of the dry bulk shippers has given them fits. 

Top-Five Transportation Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker Name Mkt Price Valuation(%) Last 12-M Retn(%)
YRCW YRC WORLDWD INC 4.37 -75 -80.36
EXM EXCEL MARITIME 4.71 -49.54 -24.28
AMR AMR CORP 7.56 -45.08 -0.53
EGLE EAGLE BULK SHPG 4.11 -15.53 -21.86
DRYS DRYSHIPS INC 4.81 -41.43 -18.75

Top-Five Transportation Stocks--Long-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker Name Mkt Price Valuation(%) Last 12-M Retn(%)
KSP K-SEA TRANSPORT 5.28 -65.58 -64.52
YRCW YRC WORLDWD INC 4.37 -75 -80.36
CHRW CH ROBINSON WWD 77.74 15.08 38.08
UPS UTD PARCEL SRVC 72.91 1.63 26.51
OSG OVERSEAS SHIPHO 32.45 -31.58 -26.3

Top-Five Transportation Stocks--Composite Score

Ticker Name Mkt Price Valuation(%) Last 12-M Retn(%)
UNP UNION PAC CORP 95.34 6.83 52.08
NSC NORFOLK SOUTHRN 62.31 -0.91 26.65
UPS UTD PARCEL SRVC 72.91 1.63 26.51
LUV SOUTHWEST AIR 12.49 -21.85 9.85
LCC US AIRWAYS GRP 11.05 -50.61 127.37

Top-Five Transportation Stocks--Most Overvalued

Ticker Name Mkt Price Valuation(%) Last 12-M Retn(%)
ACLI AMER COMML LINE 32.99 67.03 82.06
CPLP CAPITAL PRODUCT 9.81 65.05 22.47
ODFL OLD DOMINION FL 33.37 54.28 83.76
GBX GREENBRIER COS 24.43 51.75 187.75
NMM NAVIOS MARITIME 18.87 49.88 20.73

  Subscribers can check out the latest valuation, forecast, and ratings figures on Transportation from our Models HERE.

 Not a ValuEngine Premium Website member?  Then please consider signing up for our no obligation, two-week free trial today.   ValuEngine's award-winning stock Valuation and Forecast Models continue to provide investors with accurate, objective, and timely information on US stocks, ADRs, and foreign equities that trade on US markets.  Over the last few months, our stock picks have provided clients with many winners in both up and down periods.  Please consider signing up for our no obligation, two-week free trial today.

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  Currently, you research more than 400 ADRs and other foreign stocks with ValuEngine's software and website! 

We also offer research reports on more than 700 Canadian Companies on our Research Report Web Page.


What's Hot

Suttmeier's AAII Presentation

  ValuEngine Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier is a financial analyst for media such as Fox News, CNBC,YahooFinance,the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, CNNfn, and Bloomberg, Suttmeier has long been one of ValuEngine's "power users," supporting his own technically-focused analysis with VE's fundamentally-based quant methods. 

   Last week, Richard appeared at the Orlando, Florida chapter of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) to discuss his market outlook for 2011, his method of stock picking using ValuEngine and Technical Analysis, and the "Buy and Trade" strategy upon which his popular ValuTrader Model Portfolio Newsletter is based.



    Suttmeier spoke to a crowd of @80 local investors and was very well-received.  Richard     eschewed the typical sales pitch and focused on his market views as well as the nuts and bolts of the strategy underlying his successful ValuTrader Model Portfolio Newsletter. 

    We have created a special presentation section on our website and posted Suttmeier's Power Point slides from the AAII meeting.  In the future, we will post similar presentations of interest to subscribers. 

    You may now check out the slides if you wish by clicking HERE.



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