|February 2, 2010 |
| |ATTENTION Advanced Investors and Finance Professionals:
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VALUATION WARNING: Our models find that overvaluation is approaching levels typically seen when a market correction is imminent. Overvalued stocks now make up almost 65% of our universe and almost 32% of the universe is calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more. ALL sectors are now calculated to be overvalued.
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Manitowoc (MTW, $MTW) Jumps Hard on Good Earnings
Manitowoc Company, Inc. (MTW, $MTW) is a diversified, capital goods manufacturer. They are principally engaged in the design and manufacture of commercial ice machines, ice/beverage dispensers and refrigeration products for the food service, lodging, convenience store, healthcare and the soft-drink bottling and dispensing industries, the design and manufacture of cranes and related products which are used by the energy, construction, mining and other industries, and ship-repair, conversion, and new construction services for the maritime industry.
Manitowoc was selected as the Industrial Products Sector pick for our ValuEngine Forecast Model Market Neutral Portfolio Newsletter on January 18th. In just two weeks since that recent re-balance, the stock is up @30% and currently leads all 32 equities in this month's portfolio. On Monday Manitowoc reported fourth quarter adjusted earnings of $0.11 per share --compared to a loss of $0.09 per share last year. The firm almost tripled the consensus estimate of $.04/share. The stock was upgraded by RBC Capital and jumped hard yesterday and is currently trading higher by 5.9% on above average volume so far today.
Our models are not that sanguine for the firm's future, and it is currently only rated a "3-Engine" HOLD. This is in line with other analyst estimates but could change as the recent positive earnings reports work their way through the system. Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that Manitowoc Company has the probability to ROUGHLY MATCH average market performance for the next year. The company exhibits ATTRACTIVE expected EPS growth and momentum, but UNATTRACTIVE market/book ratio and P/E ratio.
Based on available data as of Feb. 02, 2011, we believe that MTW should be trading at $16. This makes MTW 6.95% overvalued. Fair Value indicates what we believe the stock should be trading at today if the stock market were perfectly efficient and everything traded at its true worth. For MTW, we base this on actual earnings per share (NYSEARCA:EPS) for the previous four quarters of $0.08, forecasted EPS for the next four quarters of $0.56, and correlations to the 30- year Treasury bond yield of 4.61%.
Our models' historical valuation analysis data indicates that the best time to buy MTW is when shares are under $16.94 and the best time to sell is when they are above $19.84. Current price targets will have to be re-calculated due to the big jump in share price over the past two days.
Subscribers can check out the latest figures on Manitowoc Company, Inc. from our models HERE.
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Market Indices Data
| ||Latest ||Change ||YTD |
ValuEngine Market Overview
Summary of VE Stock Universe
Stocks Undervalued by 20%
Stocks Overvalued by 20%
ValuEngine Sector Overview
| Sector || Change ||MTD ||YTD ||Valuation || Last 12-MReturn || P/E Ratio |
|Oils-Energy ||1.98% ||0.00% ||5.25% ||34.56% overvalued ||44.17% ||49.11 |
|Basic Materials ||2.94% ||0.00% ||-1.33% ||22.70% overvalued ||56.69% ||40.28 |
|Multi-Sector Conglomerates ||1.49% ||0.00% ||4.19% ||18.88% overvalued ||40.00% ||35.41 |
|Auto-Tires-Trucks ||0.86% ||0.00% ||0.37% ||15.72% overvalued ||39.74% ||19.93 |
|Business Services ||1.66% ||0.00% ||2.13% ||15.64% overvalued ||23.17% ||33.40 |
|Industrial Products ||2.52% ||0.00% ||2.84% ||15.23% overvalued ||35.06% ||33.07 |
|Transportation ||1.75% ||0.00% ||-0.80% ||14.49% overvalued ||32.53% ||28.32 |
|Computer and Technology ||1.66% ||0.00% ||3.84% ||13.27% overvalued ||41.25% ||37.73 |
|Aerospace ||1.12% ||0.00% ||4.63% ||12.42% overvalued ||40.40% ||19.25 |
|Finance ||1.64% ||0.00% ||1.66% ||9.42% overvalued ||20.37% ||28.20 |
|Utilities ||1.33% ||0.00% ||0.94% ||9.28% overvalued ||19.54% ||20.77 |
|Retail-Wholesale ||1.16% ||0.00% ||-1.59% ||8.32% overvalued ||28.06% ||26.63 |
|Consumer Staples ||0.84% ||0.00% ||-0.85% ||7.50% overvalued ||21.13% ||24.79 |
|Consumer Discretionary ||1.70% ||0.00% ||0.63% ||6.97% overvalued ||26.34% ||30.88 |
|Construction ||2.01% ||0.00% ||4.51% ||4.67% overvalued ||18.40% ||29.92 |
|Medical ||1.41% ||0.00% ||2.74% ||0.18% overvalued ||21.44% ||36.19 |