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ValuEngine Weekly April 8, 2011




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April 8, 2011


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VALUATION WATCH:  Our models find that overvaluation is approaching critical levels. Overvalued stocks now make up almost 64% of our universe and 30% of the universe is calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more.  All Sectors are calculated to be overvalued.

Free Report Download for Subscribers

As a bonus to our Free Weekly Newsletter subscribers, we are now offering a FREE DOWNLOAD of one of our $ 25.00 Detailed Valuation Reports.  

  This week's free download is our report on Senomyx (SNMX) Senomyx uses proprietary taste receptor technologies to discover and develop novel flavor ingredients in the savory, sweet, salt, bitter, and cooling areas. Senomyx has entered into flavoring manufacturer product discovery and development collaborations with seven of the world's leading food, beverage, and ingredient supply companies: Ajinomoto Co., Inc., Cadbury plc, Campbell Soup Company, The Coca-Cola Company, Firmenich SA, Nestle SA, and Solae. Nestle is currently marketing products that contain one of Senomyx's flavor ingredients.

  A screen for undervalued/top-ranked one-month forecast stocks with market prices in excess of $3.00 and average volume in excess of 100k shares/day performed with our Institutional software package (VEI) found Senomyx near the top of the list. 

  ValuEngine has issued a STRONG BUY recommendation for Senomyx on Apr. 07, 2011. Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that Senomyx has the probability to OUTPERFORM average market performance for the next year. The company exhibits ATTRACTIVE momentum, market valuation and expected EPS growth.

  Based on available data as of Apr. 08, 2011, we believe that SNMX should be trading at $8.8. This makes SNMX 27.04% undervalued. Fair Value indicates what we believe the stock should be trading at today if the stock market were perfectly efficient and everything traded at its true worth. For SNMX, we base this on actual earnings per share (NYSEARCA:EPS) for the previous four quarters of -$0.29, forecasted EPS for the next four quarters of -$0.14, and correlations to the 30-year Treasury bond yield of 4.62%.

 Subscribers can check out the latest figures onSenomyx from our models HERE.  

  Not a ValuEngine Premium Website member?  Then please consider signing up for our no obligation, two-week free trial today. 

Weekly Subscribers can download a FREE Detailed Valuation Report on SNMX HERE.

If you have not subscribed and want to be able to receive a FREE $ 25.00 Detailed Valuation Report, you can subscribe to our Free Weekly Newsletter HERE.

  ValuEngine Index Overview
Week Open
Thurs. Close
% Change
12374.6 12409.5 34.9 0.28% 7.19%
2796.26 2796.14 -0.12 0.00% 4.46%
846.74 849.44 2.7 0.32% 7.04%
S&P 500
1333.56 1333.51 -0.05 0.00% 6.03%
ValuEngine Market Overview
Summary of VE Stock Universe
Stocks Undervalued
Stocks Overvalued
Stocks Undervalued by 20%
Stocks Overvalued by 20%


ValuEngine Sector Overview
Last 12-MReturn
P/E Ratio
Oils-Energy -0.26% -1.03% 12.16% 24.36% overvalued 40.48% 48.70
Multi-Sector Conglomerates -0.20% -0.02% 5.05% 17.02% overvalued 26.47% 30.23
Transportation -0.42% -0.53% 1.02% 15.38% overvalued 19.35% 22.11
Basic Materials -0.54% 2.11% 3.13% 14.62% overvalued 50.39% 26.03
Industrial Products -0.48% -0.06% 7.60% 12.48% overvalued 25.77% 30.69
Aerospace -0.16% -0.29% 16.05% 12.36% overvalued 21.37% 19.81
Utilities -0.70% -0.15% 4.76% 12.26% overvalued 16.41% 21.66
Business Services -0.30% -0.12% 5.62% 11.34% overvalued 13.82% 51.57
Construction -0.54% -0.35% 2.17% 10.77% overvalued 8.34% 35.33
Computer and Technology -0.53% 0.49% 12.70% 9.26% overvalued 28.89% 45.77
Retail-Wholesale 0.15% 1.44% 6.94% 9.00% overvalued 18.86% 29.27
Auto-Tires-Trucks -1.13% -1.74% -3.72% 8.90% overvalued 35.77% 20.57
Consumer Staples 0.05% 0.56% 0.62% 8.82% overvalued 14.47% 19.15
Finance -0.57% 0.08% 3.75% 8.24% overvalued 7.27% 26.06
Consumer Discretionary -0.12% 1.26% 6.61% 6.84% overvalued 15.78% 33.30
Medical -0.43% 0.70% 13.20% 3.29% overvalued 14.16% 38.02
  Sector Talk--

  Below, we present the latest data on the OIls/Energy Sector from our Institutional software package (VEI).  We applied some basic liquidity criteria--share price greater than $3 and average daily volume in excess of 100k shares.

Please Click Here to Download a FREE Demo of ValuEngine's Professional VEI Software Package.

Top-Five Oil/Energy Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker Name Mkt Price Valuation(%) Last 12-M Retn(%)
FTK FLOTEK INDU INC 8.47     N/A 450
AHD ATLAS ENERGY LP 22.83 -4.6 268.23
SD SANDRIDGE ENRGY 12.85 -24.35 69.53
BPZ BPZ RESOURCES 5.29 -75 -26.73
LNG CHENIERE ENERGY 8.89 -53.64 81.8

Top-Five Oil/Energy Stocks--Long-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker Name Mkt Price Valuation(%) Last 12-M Retn(%)
BPZ BPZ RESOURCES 5.29 -75 -26.73
LNG CHENIERE ENERGY 8.89 -53.64 81.8
SD SANDRIDGE ENRGY 12.85 -24.35 69.53
SLB SCHLUMBERGER LT 91.62 11.22 40.52
XOM EXXON MOBIL CRP 85.76 12.39 30.63

Top-Five Oil/Energy Stocks--Composite Score

Ticker Name Mkt Price Valuation(%) Last 12-M Retn(%)
SNP CHINA PETRO&CHM 104.27 0.38 28.84
FTI FMC TECH INC 47.48 -21.62 40.31
LDK LDK SOLAR CO 11.71 -18.95 66.1
TOT TOTAL FINA SA 61.57 2.73 12.42
STR QUESTAR 17.41 -19.79 23.39

Top-Five Oil/Energy Stocks--Most Overvalued

Ticker Name Mkt Price Valuation(%) Last 12-M Retn(%)
HLX HELIX EGY SOLUT 17.26 300 18.79
HOS HORNBECK OFFSHR 29.45 240.44 39.9
AREX APPROACH RESRCS 31.42 157.9 236.76
PDS PRECISION DRILL 14.47 142.05 82.24
ES ENERGYSOLUTIONS 5.66 136.56 -20.62

  Subscribers can check out the latest valuation, forecast, and ratings figures on theOils/Energy Sector from our Models HERE.

Seeking Alpha Readers should check out our Seeking Alpha VE Investment App HERE.

What's Hot
--Valuation Watch Continues

ValuEngine Market Valuation Figures Creep Closer to Warning Level

  The ValuEngine Valuation Model tracks more than 5500 US equities, ADRs, and foreign stock which trade on US exchanges.  The model calculates a level of mispricing or valuation percentage for each equity based on what the stock should be worth if the market were totally rational and efficient--an academic exercise to be sure, but one which allows for useful comparisons between equities, sectors, and industries.

  We track valuation figures and use them as a metric for making calls about the overall state of the market.  As of last night's close, our overall universe overvaluation and overvalued by 20% or more figures have reaches levels which have been correlated with market dips in the past. 

  Whenever we see levels in overvaluation levels in excess of @ 60% for the overall universe and 27.5% for the overvalued by 20% or more categories, we issue a valuation watch.   This is a time for investors to keep a close eye and the market and to consider booking some profits and perhaps hedging against a move to the downside.

  We issued our latest Valuation Watch with the SP 500 at the 1319 level and the overall universe valuation figure at 60.89%.  Currently the SP 500 is at 1333.51 and the overall universe valuation figure is at 63.96%.  Yesterday, the number was 64.27%.  If we hit 65%, we will issue a Valuation Warning.

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