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ValuEngine Weekly April 22, 2011

|Includes: AMSC, CALX, Chemtura Corporation (CHMT), COMV, COOL, GLA, JBL, KLAC, LRCX, MSPD, ORCC, PWER, SATS, SIGM, SONS, STM

 

 

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April 22, 2011

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Free Report Download for Subscribers

As a bonus to our Free Weekly Newsletter subscribers, we are now offering a FREE DOWNLOAD of one of our $ 25.00 Detailed Valuation Reports.  

  This week's free download is our report on  Chemtura Corporation (CHMT,$CHMT).   Chemtura is a global manufacturer and marketer of specialty chemicals, crop protection and pool, spa and home care products.

  A screen for undervalued/top-ranked one-month forecast stocks with market prices in excess of $3.00 and average volume in excess of 100k shares/day performed with our Institutional software package (VEI) found Chemtura Corporation near the top of the list. Chemtura Corporation  reports Q1 2011 earnings on May 5th after the close.

Weekly Subscribers can download a FREE Detailed Valuation Report on CHMT HERE.

 ValuEngine has issued a STRONG BUY recommendation for Chemtura Corporation on Apr. 21, 2011. Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that Chemtura Corporation has the probability to OUTPERFORM average market performance for the next year. The company exhibits ATTRACTIVE P/E ratio, price/sales ratio and market valuation.

 Based on available data as of Apr. 21, 2011, we believe that CHMT should be trading at $70.08. This makes CHMT 75.00% undervalued. Fair Value indicates what we believe the stock should be trading at today if the stock market were perfectly efficient and everything traded at its true worth. For CHMT, we base this on actual earnings per share (NYSEARCA:EPS) for the previous four quarters of $18.17, forecasted EPS for the next four quarters of $1.20, and correlations to the 30- year Treasury bond yield of 4.45%.

 Subscribers can check out the latest figures on Chemtura Corporation from our models HERE.  

  Not a ValuEngine Premium Website member?  Then please consider signing up for our no obligation, two-week free trial today. 

If you have not subscribed and want to be able to receive a FREE $ 25.00 Detailed Valuation Report, you can subscribe to our Free Weekly Newsletter HERE.

  ValuEngine Index Overview
Index
Week Open
Thurs. Close
Change
% Change
YTD
DJIA
12339.71 12506 166.29 1.35% 8.02%
NASDAQ
2731.22 2820.16 88.94 3.26% 6.31%
RUSSELL 2000
826.99 845.64 18.65 2.26% 7.91%
S&P 500
1313.35 1337.38 24.03 1.83% 6.34%
ValuEngine Market Overview
Summary of VE Stock Universe
Stocks Undervalued
40.37%
Stocks Overvalued
59.63%
Stocks Undervalued by 20%
16.81%
Stocks Overvalued by 20%
28.43%

.

ValuEngine Sector Overview
Sector
Change
MTD
YTD
Valuation
Last 12-MReturn
P/E Ratio
Oils-Energy 0.71% -2.15% 11.19% 20.99% overvalued 37.15% 48.18
Multi-Sector Conglomerates -0.07% 0.11% 4.92% 15.12% overvalued 23.87% 30.25
Transportation 0.49% -1.90% -0.46% 12.11% overvalued 12.29% 21.77
Utilities 0.14% 0.24% 5.24% 11.26% overvalued 16.47% 21.54
Basic Materials 0.74% -0.03% 1.00% 10.49% overvalued 46.56% 25.93
Consumer Staples 0.30% -0.16% -0.65% 9.70% overvalued 12.48% 19.29
Industrial Products 0.79% -0.59% 6.98% 9.44% overvalued 21.20% 30.34
Business Services 0.46% 0.30% 6.06% 8.89% overvalued 9.65% 50.90
Computer and Technology 0.52% 0.43% 12.52% 8.67% overvalued 24.94% 45.93
Aerospace 0.42% -1.69% 13.98% 8.03% overvalued 16.03% 19.22
Auto-Tires-Trucks 1.68% -0.21% -2.61% 7.37% overvalued 29.12% 20.38
Retail-Wholesale 0.01% 0.83% 6.30% 7.32% overvalued 14.40% 29.32
Finance 0.47% -0.91% 2.53% 6.83% overvalued 3.25% 25.94
Consumer Discretionary 0.56% 1.73% 7.36% 5.66% overvalued 10.04% 33.27
Construction 0.18% -1.44% 1.00% 5.65% overvalued -0.55% 34.25
Medical 0.27% 1.49% 13.97% 3.52% overvalued 11.35% 38.21
  Sector Talk--Computers and Tech

  Below, we present the latest data on the Computers and Technology Sector from our Institutional software package (VEI).  We applied some basic liquidity criteria--share price greater than $3 and average daily volume in excess of 100k shares.

Top-Five Computers and Tech Sector Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker Name Mkt Price Valuation(%) Last 12-M Retn(%)
SONS SONUS NETWORKS 3.6 -8.06 28.11
SATS ECHOSTAR CORP 37.05 55.51 90.98
CALX CALIX INC 19.14 10.12 31.82
COMV COMVERGE INC 4 -64.76 -65.37
AMSC AMER SUPERCON 11.74 -53.92 -61.57

Top-Five Computers and Tech Sector Stocks--Long-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker Name Mkt Price Valuation(%) Last 12-M Retn(%)
SONS SONUS NETWORKS 3.6 -8.06 28.11
SATS ECHOSTAR CORP 37.05 55.51 90.98
COMV COMVERGE INC 4 -64.76 -65.37
AMSC AMER SUPERCON 11.74 -53.92 -61.57
CALX CALIX INC 19.14 10.12 31.82

Top-Five Computers and Tech Sector Stocks--Composite Score

Ticker Name Mkt Price Valuation(%) Last 12-M Retn(%)
KLAC KLA-TENCOR CORP 42.6 -20.9 29.48
PWER POWER-ONE INC 7.69 -37.3 44.82
JBL JABIL CIRCUIT 19.91 -29.81 21.11
LRCX LAM RESEARCH 48.98 -10.39 22.48
STM STMICROELECTRON 11.91 -22.55 17.11

Top-Five Computers and Tech Sector Stocks--Most Overvalued

Ticker Name Mkt Price Valuation(%) Last 12-M Retn(%)
SIGM SIGMA DESIGNS 12.63 300 0.96
IMN IMATION CORP 11.53 300 -3.68
ORCC ONLINE RES CORP 3.71 268.4 -17.56
MSPD MINDSPEED TECH 8.2 221.59 -4.87
COOL MAJESCO ENTMNT 3.68 206.16 318.18

  Subscribers can check out the latest valuation, forecast, and ratings figures on the Computers and Tech Sector from our Models HERE.

Seeking Alpha Readers should check out our Seeking Alpha VE Investment App HERE

  Currently, you can research more than 400 ADRs and other foreign stocks
with ValuEngine.com's software and website!
 

We also offer research reports on more than 700 Canadian Companies on our
Research Report Web Page.

  What's Hot
--Good News Once Again

ValuEngine Forecast 16 Market Neutral Strategy Newsletter Provides Solid Returns Despite Market Gyrations

  The ValuEngine Forecast 16 Market Neutral Strategy Newsletter is based on one of our most tested and researched market approaches, the VE Diversified Growth Benchmark Strategy. It uses our Forecast Model to provide the same sort of long-short equity portfolio utilized by major hedge funds and institutions without the hefty management and performance fees.

  Market neutral strategy (MNS) portfolios offer the potential of decent, steady returns in both good markets and bad. For the last three years, the ValuEngine Forecast 16 Model MNS portfolio has provided the highest returns of any of our benchmark portfolio strategies. The ValuEngine Diversified Growth 16 Market Neutral Strategy Newsletter offers the investor capable of running a short side access to increased performance with lower overall volatility and hedged risk.

 Since inception, the ValuEngine Forecast 16 MNS Portfolio Newsletter has provided a return of almost 70% while achieving a better Sharpe and Sortino ratios than the S&P 500.  In addition, the ValuEngine Forecast Model MNS Portfolio Newsletter beats the S&P 500's overall volatility and had a maximum draw down that was @66% less.

  We re-balanced and published the April edition of our newsletter earlier this week.  Once again the portfolio shrugged off the roiled markets and provided a very good return in the midst of some market volatility and uncertainty.   Our portfolio posted a positive return of 3.69% this month but lagged the S&P 500 by 131 bps. Thanks to a very strong performance from our long side, we had an overall gain despite the challenging market environment for our shorts. The modified stop-lossed strategy beat the standard MNS and outperformed the S&P by 95 bps.

  Our long side provided superior results this month and handily beat the S&P 500. It was bolstered by the massive 58% gain from GSI Commerce. Solid gains were also racked up by Revlon, Manitowac, Mercer, Federal Mogul, and Ahold NV.  This was the third month in a row where one of the newsletter's picks provided a gain of 45% or more.

Click HERE to Sign Up for ValuEngine's Best Performing Newsletter

  Overall result along with long-side portfolio performance tables are below:

Standard Strategy

Long-Bias

 

MNS

 

Short-Bias

No Stops

(70-30)

(60-40)

(50-50)

(40-60)

(30-70)

50/50 Allocation

9.34

6.52

3.69

0.86

-1.97

 

Ticker Company Name Entry Price 03/17/2011 Current Price Change %Change Sector
ATK ALLIANT TECHSYS 67.22 68.93 1.71 2.54 AEROSPACE
FDML FEDERAL MOGUL-A 22.91 25.17 2.26 9.86 AUTO TIRES TRUCKS
MERC MERCER INTL SBI 12.36 13.68 1.32 10.68 BASIC MATERIALS
GSIC GSI COMMERCE IN 18.65 29.45 10.8 57.91 BUSINESS SERVICES
ELNK EARTHLINK INC 7.76 8.14 0.38 4.90 COMPUTERS TECHNOLOGY
CX CEMEX SA ADR 8.50 8.86 0.36 4.24 CONSTRUCTION
H HYATT HOTELS CP 41.74 41.44 -0.3 -0.72 CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
REV REVLON INC-A 13.37 16.19 2.82 21.09 CONSUMER STAPLES
RDN RADIAN GRP INC 6.36 6.28 -0.08 -1.26 FINANCE
MTW MANITOWOC INC 18.83 21.11 2.28 12.11 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS
ENZN ENZON PHARMA 10.21 11.04 0.83 8.13 MEDICAL
LUK LEUCADIA NATL 33.65 35.81 2.16 6.42 MULTI-SECTOR CONGLOMERATES
LNG CHENIERE ENERGY 8.46 8.39 -0.07 -0.83 OILS ENERGY
AHONY AHOLD N V ADR 12.49 14.17 1.68 13.45 RETAIL WHOLESALE
AMR AMR CORP 6.45 5.65 -0.8 -12.40 TRANSPORTATION
PT PORTUGAL TELCOM 11.13 11.85 0.72 6.47 UTILITIES
  LONG PORTFOLIO       8.91  
GSPC S&P500 1256.88 1319.68 62.8 5.00  

 

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