Double Dip in Housing is Official, Predicted by ValuEngine.com Chief Market Strategist Suttmeier

May 31, 2011 3:36 PM ETAXR, BZH, CHCI, DHI, HOV, KBH, LEN, MDC, MHO, MTH, NVR, PHM, RYL, CAA, TOL

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Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2010

Steve Hach is the Senior Editor at ValuEngine.com, a Melbourne, Florida-based stock valuation and forecast service. ValuEngine utilizes Ivy League financial research as the basis for its coverage of more than 8000 US, Canadian, and other foreign stocks. Hach utilizes ValuEngine's complex quantitative models to create products and services for both individual investors, and institutional clients. Steve's research is distributed throughout such organizations as Wells Fargo, Fidelity Investments, Scotia Capital, Bank of New York, etc. His research reports are published on Yahoo Finance, Thomson/Reuters, Capital IQ, Bloomberg, and others. Hach developed the ValuEngine Forecast 16 MNS Portfolio Newsletter so that individual investors could access one of ValuEngine's most successful and well-researched hedge fund-type strategies. The newsletter relies on ValuEngine's Forecast Model-- which utilizes fundamental data along with complex mathematical modeling to pick stocks that outperform the markets. With both a long and a short side, the VE Forecast 16 MNS Portfolio provides a combination of high returns and low volatility in both good markets and bad. This newsletter is perfect for those seeking to take advantage of today's advanced stock forecasting and portfolio-construction techniques. Hach has a varied research background that includes military experience as an intelligence specialist, a Master’s degree in US History, and Doctoral work in US Diplomatic History and International Relations.

May 31, 2011

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House Blown Down

Double Dip in Housing is Official, Predicted by ValuEngine.com Chief Market Strategist Suttmeier

The latest Case-Shiller data--released today, confirms that housing prices in the U.S. are suffering from a double dip. Home prices fell 4.2% in the first quarter of 2011 and have a hit a new post-bubble low. To make matters worse, 60% of the component cities in the Case-Shiller index posted new lows in March. Only Washington DC and Seattle posted increases in prices. Overall, prices are now at levels last seen in 2002. Analysts have found that the end of the home buyer tax credit last year removed much-needed support for the market.

Our Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier has been predicting this event for quite some time now. His analysis of the housing and banking sectors has been quite accurate with warnings about the frailty of the market and the bubble dating back to March 2007. Below, we provide the latest ValuEngine data on major home builders from our VEI software package. As you can see, not a single builder is rated a buy right now.

Ticker	Name	Mkt Price	Valuation(%)	VE Rating	Last 12-M Retn(%)	5-Yr Retn(%)	Forecast 1-Month Retn(%)	Forecast 1-Yr Retn(%)	P/E Ratio
AXR	AMREP CORP	9.5	-38.51	1	-30.45	-48.86	-1.44	-20.72	135.71
BZH	BEAZER HOMES	4.12	-69.55	3	-19.37	-52.08	0.79	-0.95	N/A
CHCI	COMSTOCK HMBLDG	1.11	N/A	1	-49.77	-54.41	-4.92	-23.22	N/A
DHI	D R HORTON INC	11.98	-19.37	3	-1.56	-19.93	0.44	-3.86	N/A
HOV	HOVNANIAN ENTRP	2.7	-75	3	-57.48	-54.05	0.9	1.72	N/A
KBH	KB HOME	12.15	-48.2	1	-15.68	-32.53	-10.23	-44.25	N/A
LEN	LENNAR CORP -A	18.9	-21.23	2	8.62	-21.96	-0.75	-7.69	50.44
MDC	MDC HLDGS	26.97	-28.45	3	-11.78	-15.64	0.59	-1.85	N/A
MHO	M/I HOMES INC	12.56	-33.58	2	0.88	-23.05	0.05	-7.75	N/A
MTH	MERITAGE HOMES	24.51	-8.38	2	13.26	-16.58	0.33	-5.61	N/A
NVR	NVR INC	745.17	-2.5	3	7.94	-0.2	1.38	2.11	24.91
PHM	PULTE GROUP ONC	8.2	-53.5	3	-26.52	-29.41	0.6	0.77	N/A
RYL	RYLAND GRP INC	17.78	-28.78	2	-3.53	-26.04	-0.21	-8.17	N/A
SPF	STANDARD PAC	3.92	-59.15	3	-21.44	-40.49	0.54	-1.51	63.81
TOL	TOLL BROTHERS	21.27	0.57	3	0.71	-7.98	0.38	-4.51	N/A

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Market Indices Data

Index	Latest	Change	YTD
Dow Jones	12,505.10	63.54	8.01%
NASDAQ Composite	2,820.67	23.81	6.33%
Russell 2000	844.60	8.34	7.78%
S&P 500	1,338.38	7.28	6.42%

ValuEngine Market Overview

Summary of VE Stock Universe
Stocks Undervalued	47.84%
Stocks Overvalued	52.16%
Stocks Undervalued by 20%	19.64%
Stocks Overvalued by 20%	21.91%

ValuEngine Sector Overview

Sector	Change	MTD	YTD	Valuation	Last 12-MReturn	P/E Ratio
Utilities	0.27%	-1.47%	5.90%	9.44% overvalued	25.96%	23.60
Oils-Energy	0.97%	-6.50%	2.85%	9.43% overvalued	46.49%	48.73
Multi-Sector Conglomerates	0.87%	-4.32%	2.71%	9.31% overvalued	31.96%	27.61
Consumer Staples	0.73%	-4.07%	-5.00%	6.14% overvalued	20.04%	21.22
Business Services	0.26%	-3.13%	4.08%	5.57% overvalued	15.48%	37.21
Retail-Wholesale	0.43%	-0.70%	6.87%	4.66% overvalued	23.94%	35.29
Industrial Products	0.39%	-6.23%	2.02%	4.31% overvalued	28.64%	31.96
Computer and Technology	0.64%	-3.41%	9.96%	3.50% overvalued	35.43%	44.99
Medical	0.49%	0.03%	16.29%	3.21% overvalued	22.22%	35.11
Transportation	0.39%	-3.83%	-1.79%	2.78% overvalued	20.15%	20.08
Finance	0.54%	-0.79%	2.64%	1.61% overvalued	9.11%	25.11
Aerospace	0.53%	-1.64%	11.09%	1.58% overvalued	25.44%	18.54
Auto-Tires-Trucks	1.07%	-6.32%	-7.40%	1.58% overvalued	49.03%	19.27
Consumer Discretionary	0.27%	-2.21%	5.00%	1.53% overvalued	16.23%	29.44
Basic Materials	1.42%	-4.52%	-4.09%	0.27% undervalued	48.48%	24.35
Construction	0.79%	-3.98%	-4.19%	3.58% undervalued	3.92%	49.15

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