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ValuEngine Weekly June 3, 2011

|Includes: AMP, BAC, C, DS, FAF, GRP.U, ING, Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS), MCO, MI, SFE, SLG, SNBC, TRAD, UBS, WFC, WPG, XL

 

 

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June 3, 2011


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ValuEngine Index Overview
Index
Week Open
Thurs. Close
Change
% Change
YTD
DJIA
12443.4
12248.5
-194.9
-1.57%
5.80%
NASDAQ
2824.25
2773.31
-50.94
-1.80%
4.54%
RUSSELL 2000
843.32
820.69
-22.63
-2.68%
4.73%
S&P 500
1331.1
1312.94
-18.16
-1.36%
4.40%
ValuEngine Market Overview
Summary of VE Stock Universe
Stocks Undervalued
50.64%
Stocks Overvalued
49.36%
Stocks Undervalued by 20%
21.20%
Stocks Overvalued by 20%
20.47%

.

ValuEngine Sector Overview
Sector
Change
MTD
YTD
Valuation
Last 12-MReturn
P/E Ratio
Utilities
-0.05%
-0.04%
5.04%
8.72% overvalued
25.03%
23.51
Oils-Energy
-0.22%
-0.19%
1.11%
8.01% overvalued
45.12%
48.24
Multi-Sector Conglomerates
0.80%
0.91%
2.40%
7.58% overvalued
33.10%
27.44
Business Services
0.24%
0.40%
3.53%
4.42% overvalued
16.38%
36.89
Consumer Staples
-0.42%
-0.36%
-6.13%
3.75% overvalued
18.81%
20.95
Computer and Technology
0.11%
0.16%
8.82%
2.40% overvalued
34.92%
44.47
Retail-Wholesale
-0.66%
-0.57%
4.19%
2.33% overvalued
22.80%
34.68
Medical
-0.04%
0.02%
15.42%
2.22% overvalued
19.79%
34.71
Industrial Products
-0.39%
-0.31%
-0.45%
2.05% overvalued
26.93%
31.62
Transportation
0.40%
0.45%
-3.51%
1.59% overvalued
18.90%
19.66
Consumer Discretionary
-0.05%
0.09%
3.47%
0.76% overvalued
15.71%
29.09
Aerospace
0.18%
0.20%
11.65%
0.67% overvalued
24.64%
18.44
Finance
-0.16%
-0.10%
1.24%
0.48% overvalued
8.99%
24.80
Auto-Tires-Trucks
0.22%
0.30%
-9.40%
0.98% undervalued
46.91%
18.62
Basic Materials
-0.01%
0.04%
-5.46%
2.29% undervalued
48.14%
23.84
Construction
-0.30%
-0.27%
-5.57%
5.36% undervalued
3.26%
48.33
  Sector Talk--Finance

   Bad news for financial stocks this week as the Moody's Investors Service reported that the era of "Too Big to Fail" may be over for some large institutions.  According to the Wall Street Journal, Moody's has warned that it may issue a credit-rating cut for Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Citigroup (NYSE:C), and Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC).    The reasons for the potential downgrades would include the removal of support from the Federal Government as the Dodd-Frank financial reform bill is implemented.

  Our proprietary valuation, forecast, and ratings for these three banks are below.  Of the three, only Wells Fargo avoids a Sell rating.  All three banks show negative long-term forecast figures--with Wells Fargo again at the top of the heap at just slightly negative.  On a valuation basis, Bank of America and Wells Fargo are far more attractive than Citigroup, which has pegged our overvaluation metric at 300%.  For our fundamentally-based quantitative systems, Wells Fargo is not as problematic as Citigroup or Bank of America.

 
Ticker 
      
Company Name 
Mkt Price
Valuation(%)
VE Rating
Forecast 1-Mon Retn(%)
Forecast 1-Yr Retn(%)
Last 12-Mon Retn (%)
5-Yr Avg Retn (%)
P/E Ratio
BAC
BANK OF AMER CP
11.24
-33.1
2
0.5
-8.26
-26.97
-26.78
14.88
C
CITIGROUP INC
39.65
300
1
-2.61
-23.8
3.01
-2.98
126.39
WFC
WELLS FARGO-NEW
26.94
-21.77
3
1.58
-0.2
-3.68
-3.34
10.87

  Below, we present the latest data on the rest of the Finance Sector from our Institutional software package (VEI).  We applied some basic liquidity criteria--share price greater than $3 and average daily volume in excess of 100k shares. 

Top-Five Finance Sector Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker
Name
Mkt Price
Valuation(%)
Last 12-M Retn(%)
MI MARSHALL&ILSLEY 7.85 -37.51 -2.73
FAF FIRST AMER FINL 15.43 -2.78 7.83
SNBC SUN BANCORP/NJ 3.75 -62.87 -18.48
SFE SAFEGUARD SCTFC 18.83 -75 66.64
NCT NEWCASTLE INV 5.29 -70.85 84.32

Top-Five Finance Sector Stocks--Long-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker
Name
Mkt Price
Valuation(%)
Last 12-M Retn(%)
MI MARSHALL&ILSLEY 7.85 -37.51 -2.73
SNBC SUN BANCORP/NJ 3.75 -62.87 -18.48
FAF FIRST AMER FINL 15.43 -2.78 7.83
MIM MI DEVLPMNTS -A 30.62 N/A 139.97
SFE SAFEGUARD SCTFC 18.83 -75 66.64

Top-Five Finance Sector Stocks--Composite Score

Ticker
Name
Mkt Price
Valuation(%)
Last 12-M Retn(%)
UBS UBS AG 19.18 -41.18 43.13
ING ING GROEP-ADR 11.84 -37.73 48.56
MCO MOODYS CORP 39.69 -13.87 102.71
AMP AMERIPRISE FINL 58.99 -15.7 48.51
SFE SAFEGUARD SCTFC 18.83 -75 66.64

Top-Five Finance Sector Stocks--Most Overvalued

Ticker
Name
Mkt Price
Valuation(%)
Last 12-M Retn(%)
C CITIGROUP INC 40.01 300 2.09
XL XL GROUP PLC 22.85 192.21 34.17
GRT GLIMCHER REALTY 9.91 179.72 51.53
SLG SL GREEN REALTY 86.42 143.99 40.77
TRAD TRADESTATION GP 9.72 125.56 28.91


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Free Report Download for Subscribers

As a bonus to our Free Weekly Newsletter subscribers, we are offering a FREE DOWNLOAD of one of our Detailed Valuation Reports--this report is normally $25.00.  

  This week's free download is our report on Las Vegas Sands Corp (NYSE:LVS).  Las Vegas Sands Corp is a hotel, gaming, and retail mall company headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada. The company owns The Venetian Resort Hotel Casino, the Sands Expo and Convention Center, Venetian Interactive, an internet based venture, and Venetian Macao Limited, a developer of multiple casino hotel resort properties in The People's Republic of China's Special Administrative Region of Macao.

Weekly Subscribers can download a FREE Detailed Valuation Report on LVS HERE.

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