ValuEngine Rates Tech Stocks

Aug. 19, 2011 2:48 PM ETLPL, TLAB, DMAN, CALX, AMSC, NOK, ATML, JBL, DELL-OLD, HSTM, EGHT, SINA, T, IDCC
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Long/Short Equity, Long Only

Contributor Since 2010

Steve Hach is the Senior Editor at ValuEngine.com, a Melbourne, Florida-based stock valuation and forecast service. ValuEngine utilizes Ivy League financial research as the basis for its coverage of more than 8000 US, Canadian, and other foreign stocks. Hach utilizes ValuEngine's complex quantitative models to create products and services for both individual investors, and institutional clients. Steve's research is distributed throughout such organizations as Wells Fargo, Fidelity Investments, Scotia Capital, Bank of New York, etc. His research reports are published on Yahoo Finance, Thomson/Reuters, Capital IQ, Bloomberg, and others. Hach developed the ValuEngine Forecast 16 MNS Portfolio Newsletter so that individual investors could access one of ValuEngine's most successful and well-researched hedge fund-type strategies. The newsletter relies on ValuEngine's Forecast Model-- which utilizes fundamental data along with complex mathematical modeling to pick stocks that outperform the markets. With both a long and a short side, the VE Forecast 16 MNS Portfolio provides a combination of high returns and low volatility in both good markets and bad. This newsletter is perfect for those seeking to take advantage of today's advanced stock forecasting and portfolio-construction techniques. Hach has a varied research background that includes military experience as an intelligence specialist, a Master’s degree in US History, and Doctoral work in US Diplomatic History and International Relations.

MARKET OVERVIEW

 

Summary of VE Stock Universe

Stocks Undervalued

87.48%

Stocks Overvalued

12.52%

Stocks Undervalued by 20%

60.38%

Stocks Overvalued by 20%

4.54%

SECTOR OVERVIEW

 

Sector

Change

MTD

YTD

Valuation

Last 12-MReturn

P/E Ratio

Aerospace

-4.67%

-13.88%

1.94%

24.05% undervalued

6.24%

18.73

Auto-Tires-Trucks

-7.72%

-21.51%

-31.28%

31.07% undervalued

9.18%

14.73

Basic Materials

-5.11%

-13.81%

-18.81%

22.82% undervalued

29.00%

24.25

Business Services

-4.82%

-15.61%

-13.26%

23.64% undervalued

5.26%

20.78

Computer and Technology

-5.63%

-16.14%

-14.05%

27.26% undervalued

9.25%

36.05

Construction

-6.01%

-17.42%

-27.74%

29.46% undervalued

-13.69%

37.8

Consumer Discretionary

-4.96%

-15.07%

-14.59%

26.22% undervalued

7.58%

29.91

Consumer Staples

-3.92%

-11.44%

-15.74%

16.09% undervalued

4.24%

16.92

Finance

-4.32%

-12.20%

-11.87%

22.00% undervalued

-0.56%

22.94

Industrial Products

-5.87%

-15.64%

-16.56%

27.14% undervalued

15.10%

17.91

Medical

-4.73%

-13.88%

-8.33%

26.59% undervalued

6.66%

27.64

Multi-Sector Conglomerates

-5.19%

-14.98%

-17.09%

23.95% undervalued

8.51%

20.74

Oils-Energy

-6.38%

-17.12%

-18.04%

20.69% undervalued

25.16%

46.23

Retail-Wholesale

-4.79%

-14.20%

-8.59%

22.32% undervalued

13.13%

22.07

Transportation

-5.68%

-14.90%

-19.18%

15.59% undervalued

-4.92%

16.2

Utilities

-3.22%

-7.57%

-5.57%

8.79% undervalued

8.81%

24.89

Sector Talk—Computers/Technology

Below, we present the latest data on leading Computers/Technology Sector stocks from our Institutional software package (VEI). These results were filtered by market price and volume--no results below 3$/share or less than 100k shares/day volume.

Top-Five Computers/Technology Sector Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker

Name

Mkt Price

Valuation(%)

Last 12-M Retn(%)

LPL

LG DISPLAY-ADR

8.77

N/A

-42

TLAB

TELLABS INC

3.72

48.91

-47.23

DMAN

DEMANDTEC INC

5.67

-39.03

-21.25

CALX

CALIX INC

13.65

-42.47

32.4

OCLR

OCLARO INC

3.42

-75

-68.62


Top-Five Computers/Technology Stocks--Long-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker

Name

Mkt Price

Valuation(%)

Last 12-M Retn(%)

LPL

LG DISPLAY-ADR

8.77

N/A

-42

TLAB

TELLABS INC

3.72

48.91

-47.23

DMAN

DEMANDTEC INC

5.67

-39.03

-21.25

CALX

CALIX INC

13.65

-42.47

32.4

AMSC

AMER SUPERCON

5.73

-75

-79.83


 

Top-Five Computers/Technology Stocks--Composite Score

Ticker

Name

Mkt Price

Valuation(%)

Last 12-M Retn(%)

ALU

ALCATEL ADS

3.4

-60.51

23.19

ATML

ATMEL CORP

8.93

-46.2

54.5

JBL

JABIL CIRCUIT

14.27

-49.29

19.82

DELL

DELL INC

13.76

-37.8

12.89

CMVT

COMVERSE TECH

6.4

-75

20.98


Top-Five Computers/Technology Stocks--Most Overvalued

Ticker

Name

Mkt Price

Valuation(%)

Last 12-M Retn(%)

HSTM

HEALTHSTREAM

11.42

105.33

128.86

EGHT

8X8 INC

3.31

94.37

138.13

SINA

SINA CORP

96.2

87.39

125.77

LEAP

LEAP WIRELESS

8.87

83.52

-17.26

IDCC

INTERDIGITL INC

64.69

83.14

144.21

What's Hot
--ValuEngine.com Market Neutral Newsletter Beats S&P by More Than 12%

The ValuEngine Forecast 16 MNS Portfolio Newsletter is derived from the ValuEngine Diversified Growth Benchmark Portfolio Strategy.  This strategy is the product of ValuEngine's academic research team and combines cutting-edge financial analysis and portfolio construction techniques with real-world Wall St. know how.  

Our Forecast 16 Market Neutral Strategy Newsletter portfolio just posted a gain of 2.87% versus the S&P 500's loss of 9.48%. For the most recent re-balance period, we beat the S&P 500's return by more than 1200 basis points!  Since inception, the newsletter’s compounded return to date stands at 64.50%. The trailing 12 month percentage gain is 21.21% for the newsletter and 10.5% for the S&P 500 index.

We are Now DOUBLING the Return of the S&P over the Last Year !


Overall results are below:

VE FORECAST 16 MNS Standard Strategy Overall July-August, 2011
 

Standard Strategy

Long-Bias

 

MNS

 

Short-Bias

No Stops

(70-30)

(60-40)

(50-50)

(40-60)

(30-70)

50/50 Allocation

-11.84

-4.49

2.87

10.22

17.57

This month we see once more the benefits of the market neutral approach.  Despite declines of almost 10% for major indices, our short picks returned almost 20%.  Half of our shorts returned 20% or more and 5 of those winners returned @30% or more. Our short of Accuray led the way with a massive 38% gain.


 

Our recommend strategy--which includes stop losses and sometimes (but not this month) a long or short bias, did even better and returned more than 7%!  Here are the overall results for our recommended strategy:

VE FORECAST 16 MNS Recommended Strategy Overall July-August, 2011

Standard Strategy

Long-Bias

 

X

 

Short-Bias

No Stops

(70-30)

(60-40)

(50-50)

(40-60)

(30-70)

50/50 Allocation

-2.77

2.25

7.27

12.29

17.32


Here are the individual results for our short side portfolio:

VE FORECAST 16 MNS SHORT SIDE July-August, 2011

Ticker

Company Name

07/14/2011

Exit Price

Change

%Change

Sector

GY

GENCORP INC

6.57

4.61

1.96

29.83

AEROSPACE

CYD

CHINA YUCHAI

20.50

15.87

4.63

22.59

AUTO TIRES TRUCKS

SA

SEABRIDGE GOLD

30.26

29.67

0.59

1.95

BASIC MATERIALS

MLHR

HERMAN MILLER

27.41

18.97

8.44

30.79

BUSINESS SERVICES

SINA

SINA CORP

114.54

97.91

16.63

14.52

COMPUTERS TECHNOLOGY

LPX

LOUISIANA PAC

8.32

6.83

1.49

17.91

CONSTRUCTION

BYD

BOYD GAMING CP

9.06

6.15

2.91

32.12

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

GCI

GANNETT INC

13.57

11.01

2.56

18.87

CONSUMER STAPLES

UAM

UNIVL AMERICAN

10.29

10.42

-0.13

-1.26

FINANCE

TRS

TRIMAS CORP

26.37

20.27

6.1

23.13

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS

ARAY

ACCURAY INC

8.50

5.24

3.26

38.35

MEDICAL

LUK

LEUCADIA NATL

34.48

28.99

5.49

15.92

MULTI-SECTOR CONGLOMERATES

LDK

LDK SOLAR CO

6.57

6.81

-0.24

-3.65

OILS ENERGY

SHLD

SEARS HLDG CP

75.26

61.77

13.49

17.92

RETAIL WHOLESALE

LCC

US AIRWAYS GRP

7.90

5.97

1.93

24.43

TRANSPORTATION

S

SPRINT NEXTEL

5.41

3.59

1.82

33.64

UTILITIES

 

SHORT PORTFOLIO

 

 

 

19.82

 

GSPC

S&P500

1317.72

1192.76

-124.96

-9.48

 


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