Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

Latest From FED Indicates Rate Hike Will Be Later Rather Than Sooner

|Includes: AAL, Andeavor (ANDV), AVGO, DAL, GS, GT, HIG, LUV, MNK, MPC, TRV, VLO, WU, XL

VALUATION WATCH: Overvalued stocks now make up 32.07% of our stocks assigned a valuation and 9.61% of those equities are calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more. Two sectors are calculated to be overvalued.

Decisions, Decisions

--Latest from FED Indicates Rate Hike will be Later Rather than Sooner

This week's trading action has unsettled markets and investors, but it may have led to at least one positive outcome for stocks. At a briefing today for regional economic conditions, New York Fed Bank Chair--and FOMC member-- William Dudley told reporters that "at this moment, the decision to begin the normalization process at the September [FOMC] meeting seems less compelling to me than it did several weeks ago. But normalization could become more compelling by the time of the meeting as we get additional information."

That statement is definitely of the "tea-leaves needing to be read" variety, but it indicates that US markets should continue to trade under the benefit of the Fed's zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) for a while longer. US short-term rates have hovered near 0% for most of the past seven years now. This policy provided the only real boost for the US economy as the fiscal options, controlled by politicians in Washington DC, were focused on austerity in lieu of a robust stimulus program.

It would seem quite premature to raise rates under the present circumstances, and with the Fed still responsible for a dual mandate--low inflation AND full employment--it appears cooler heads will prevail thanks to the "reality" provided by China and the global market pull back.

Dudley referenced this in his remarks by noting that "incoming data suggest the economy continues to grow at a moderate pace sufficient to cause a gradual tightening of the U.S. labor market" but "international developments have increased the downside risk to U.S. economic growth."

Again, as we have been noting for a while now, the US economy is recovering, and we see some pressures within the labor market--as evidenced by changes in employment practices on the part of Wal-Mart, McDonald's et al. We also see a low level of inflation--bolstered by the cratering of oil and other commodities pricing.

Stocks, despite their recent gyrations, remain the only game in town where yields are concerned. We recommend investors with the means to weather this storm stay the course. We do not foresee a long-term issue for the US economy here, and we note that selling at the bottom of a down turn is often the worst move one can make. On the other hand, this is a time to tighten up those stop-losses and to stay attentive.

We now calculate that 32.07% of stocks are overvalued and 9.61% of those stocks are overvalued by 20% or more. This is a huge reversal of where we have been for much of the year. In fact, to find stocks calculated to be this "cheap," you would have to go all the way back to November, 2012.

We also use trading data to provide forecast estimates for a variety of time horizons for almost ever equity in our database. Our Buy/Sell/Hold recommendations are based upon the 1-year forecast return figure. Using valuation and forecast figures, you can rank and rate our covered stocks against each other, to find out, in an objective and systematic way, the most attractive investment targets based on your own risk/reward parameters.

For today's bulletin we searched for top-rated stocks in the S&P 500. These stocks are shown below, ranked according to their short-term forecast figures. They are all considered to be "5-Engine" STRONG BUY selections.
















Ticker Company Name Market Price Valuation Last 12-M Return 1-M Forecast Return 1-Yr Forecast Return P/E Ratio Sector Name
TSO TESORO CORP 88.68 -8.28% 36.62% 1.54% 18.64% 8.43 Oils-Energy
VLO VALERO ENERGY 57.61 -10.64% 6.33% 1.35% 16.31% 6.82 Oils-Energy
TRV TRAVELERS COS 97.75 -9.53% 3.67% 1.19% 14.28% 9.27 Finance
GT GOODYEAR TIRE 27.83 12.26% 10.66% 1.18% 14.14% 9.71 Auto-Tires-Trucks
AAL AMER AIRLINES 37.5 -19.13% -4.87% 1.17% 14.05% 4.77 Transportation
LUV SOUTHWEST AIR 36.52 -22.37% 13.63% 1.15% 13.89% 12.37 Transportation
HIG HARTFORD FIN SV 44.69 18.61% 21.84% 1.14% 13.76% 11.36 Finance
AVGO AVAGO TECHNOLOG 108.51 -16.92% 43.21% 1.14% 13.75% 14.07 Computer and Technology
GS GOLDMAN SACHS 178.22 -10.73% 0.20% 1.12% 13.48% 9.12 Finance
XL XL GROUP PLC 36.64 0.57% 7.99% 1.08% 13.02% 10.83 Finance
MPC MARATHON PETROL 43.77 -5.67% -3.37% 1.06% 12.76% 7.47 Oils-Energy
DAL DELTA AIR LINES 41.37 -15.51% 2.10% 1.06% 12.72% 10.73 Transportation
MNK MALLINCKRODT PL 78.66 N/A 5.58% 1.03% 12.38% 10.72 Medical
WU WESTERN UNION 17.81 -3.77% 1.89% 1.00% 11.98% 10.73 Business Services

Below is today's data on TSO:

Tesoro (TSO) was founded in 1968 as a company primarily engaged in petroleum exploration and production. In 1969, Tesoro began operating Alaska's first refinery near Kenai. Today, Tesoro is a FORTUNE 500 company and one of the largest independent petroleum refiners and marketers in the Western United States.

VALUENGINE RECOMMENDATION: ValuEngine continues its STRONG BUY recommendation on TESORO CORP for 2015-08-25. Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that TESORO CORP has the probability to OUTPERFORM average market performance for the next year. The company exhibits ATTRACTIVE Sharpe Ratio and P/E Ratio.


ValuEngine Forecast
1-Month 90.05 1.54%
3-Month 90.86 2.46%
6-Month 92.68 4.51%
1-Year 105.21 18.64%
2-Year 95.37 7.54%
3-Year 63.73 -28.13%


Valuation & Rankings
Valuation 8.28% undervalued Valuation Rank(?) 49
1-M Forecast Return 1.54% 1-M Forecast Return Rank 100
12-M Return 36.62% Momentum Rank(?) 93
Sharpe Ratio 1.01 Sharpe Ratio Rank(?) 94
5-Y Avg Annual Return 40.40% 5-Y Avg Annual Rtn Rank 98
Volatility 40.01% Volatility Rank(?) 44
Expected EPS Growth -10.96% EPSGrowth Rank(?) 17
Market Cap (billions) 11.20 Size Rank 92
Trailing P/E Ratio 8.43 Trailing P/E Rank(?) 93
Forward P/E Ratio 9.47 Forward P/E Ratio Rank 83
PEG Ratio n/a PEG Ratio Rank n/a
Price/Sales 0.33 Price/Sales Rank(?) 88
Market/Book 1.81 Market/Book Rank(?) 52
Beta 2.08 Beta Rank 11
Alpha 0.28 Alpha Rank 91 is an independent research provider, producing buy/hold/sell recommendations, target price, and valuations on over 5,000 US and Canadian equities every trading day.