Gold is now down 4.9% in its last 9 trading days as the dollar has hit a 12 year high against the euro. I like the charts for gold and silver that Michael Noonan has provided as to where we are for gold and silver. A short term rally may be in the works, but it should be noted that this is a rally in the midst of a bear market.
Silver has also had it's troubles of late falling to the $15 range again. The following chart also from The Market Oracle shows what trouble silver is in (despite the fact we may get a short term bounce here).
If we do get a rally in the metals, look for a pop in GDX, GDXJ, JNUG, and NUGT this week. While JDST still has the daily and weekly green arrows pointing up, during the week of a Fed meeting, you can throw out the window any charts. Simply play the higher high and possibly be flat going into the day of the announcement. My guess is you'll get to play both sides for profit.
Gold is up $3.20 in Asia trading and silver up 8 cents.
What will the Fed do? I don't think they will do any raising of rates this meeting. As far as a change in the language, they may try and do what Draghi does so well and "talk the talk" of what they may do at some point; raise rates. What Steve Liesman will be spouting on CNBC will be how the Fed changed the language on how long they will wait to raise interest rates. The way I read the data tells me it will be awhile, but as I wrote before the last meeting, they may indeed raise rates to maintain the illusion they have control and keep some sort of credibility intact. They're not stupid. They know perception of them means everything. If we didn't have faith in those pieces of paper called "dollars" or "Federal Reserve Notes" then their game would be over right? Just look at the Ruble as to what occurs when people lose faith. Right now for the dollar, it's the complete opposite. Everyone, including me, looks at the dollar as the safe haven. But don't forget, gold is going up in price in all currencies but two; the U.S. dollar and the Swiss Franc of late.
DWTI has been on a tear lately, moving up a tradable 6 points a day the last three trading sessions. Friday could have been a 10 point trade if you got out at the top, but of course not many can trade that way, so a good 6 points in the morning would have been a good time to take profits and go home happy.
I will remind those who don't agree; this is deflation. I will finally write my article analyzing the data this week. It is so much data I can't even put it on one page, but link it to a separate page. I have been accumulating this data for over a month and of course busy working on the mining package.
RUSS hit a higher high at 14.67 and could have been rode up to 15.76 at the high, closing at 15.59. We got stopped out of this at 14 and re-entered for a nice scalp on Thursday. If you are still long I would raise stop to break-even. If you want to guarantee profit, raise the stop to 15.00.
DGAZ and UGAZ were difficult to trade and again in no mans land.
UVXY could have been bought at a break of 17.79 and rode up to as much as 18.85 in the morning. It went on to touch 19.17 but fell from there to close at 18.23. If the stock market is up on Monday, look to trade SVXY on a higher high. I still lean long the stock market but right now the futures are pointing down. My data that I will show in my next article is all pretty much negative, but the stock market has a mind of its own. It doesn't matter where I lean, just follow the price action and trade it. I don't have as much conviction in my leaning long, I will say this. But I view this week as a difficult one to decipher as we have the Fed meeting that will cause some swings in both way. Will the Fed raise rates and put a damper on the market? I don't think so. Will the market then move higher? I think so. But it is the change in the language that will dictate, so don't get caught up in the first move until Steve Liesman tells you what the change in the language says. Then I would read it yourself before trading unless you see a breakout one way or the other. I have said many times that trading the week of Fed meetings is for professionals. The better way to play it if you aren't as experienced is to wait for the trend to reveal itself and play it.
TNA fell about 1% on Friday to close at 85.49. It fell all the way to 82.59 and recovered the rest of the day. I will say that if for any reason we fall below 80 on TNA, while it may be just a short time, it shouldn't be ignored. Calling a reversal for a market isn 't easy, but the charts still tell me to be bullish and buy the dips. Let the Fed show the way. They love a strong market and if you knew anything about how pensions (defined benefit plans for government workers and large corporations) work in America, they NEED a strong market.Gold and Silver Stock Mining Package - Release date shooting for Friday 3/20/2015 - If you are signed up, look forward to an email announcement this week. If yo haven't signed up, read below.
The mining package that we will be offering has been waiting for a release at a time that I feel would coincide with my overall view of gold and silver prices reaching the lower targets I think they can fall too. Many so called experts last year in July thought the miners would take off and next thing you know they broke to lower lows. Some called this latest run up the final fall for the miners. It obviously hasn't been and I know that's frustrating for many who are long or have been long for some time. There is a reason why I have been patient with the release of the mining package. There is also a reason why I chose the stocks I did and I'm excited about their potential. The mining package release date will be announced soon. I sent out an email to all who have subscribed recently with an update. If you haven't signed up, read the following and express your interest.
For those who haven't signed up; We will be coming out with a mining package where we pick what we believe to be the best mining stocks to buy based on my research the last 8 months. We have been patient in releasing this because of the timing in purchasing these mining stocks can be tricky. We were one of the only one's who recommended selling mining stocks in September of 2010 when the HUI was trading at 512.56. Much has transpired in the mining industry since that call with many companies disappearing or being taken over. Today many companies are struggling and if we do get a further pullback in the price of gold and silver, more companies will go bankrupt. Knowing which companies have the best opportunity moving forward will be key to you getting returns that we believe will be in the 100% to 500% range, and possibly much higher for some of the miners. This package will be released in the next few weeks and we will announce it on the site.
If you are interested in this Gold and Silver Stock Mining Package let us know by clicking this link below and completing the form.
Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
Additional disclosure: New pricing page for gold and silver coins and bars can be found here: http://buygoldandsilversafely.com/prices-html/