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A Quick Comment On Bonds

Official government inflation data are benign. There is much derision of these findings. However, an independent source, PriceStats, which tracks online pricing, is finding that inflation is indeed trending down, to 0.11% monthly. This contains within in a link to the raw data.

Another point for inflationists to consider is that the Effective Fed Funds rate is running around 9 basis points. This is said to be a free market rate. If inflation/economic growth (i.e. nominal GDP) were heating up, this should move to the top of the Fed's range, or toward 25 bps.

The current situation is therefore murky. With the U.S. effectively at peace, it's good to recall that except for the aftermath of the Vietnam War and concomitant demographic pressures from the Baby Boom, price stability or even deflation has been the norm in this country during peacetime.

The only thing I'm sure of is that bonds remain in a structural long term bull market. Are they entering a bear market or a choppy one? We shall see, but for now it appears that risk-takers in intermediate or long term bonds are at least receiving a positive current return on their investment after inflation. Thus a surprise rally in yields downward is a possibility.