Tim Biggam, TradingBlock (September 13, 2011, 3:21 CDT)
|Symbol||Analyst Target Price||Target Date|
|PEP||68.00||March 1, 2012|
PepsiCo, Inc. (ticker: PEP) is a global food, snack and beverage company. Outside of Pepsi, the Company’s brands include Quaker Oats, Tropicana, Gatorade, Lay’s, Pepsi, Walkers, Gamesa and Sabritas. The Company is organized into four business units: PepsiCo Americas Foods (NYSEARCA:PAF), PepsiCo Americas Beverages (PAB), PepsiCo Europe and PepsiCo Asia, Middle East and Africa (AMEA).
Shares of PEP have come down sharply over the past month, dropping from the 70 level to nearly 60. This puts the valuation of PEP shares at levels not seen since the early 1990s, with multiples now approaching 15. Given the steady and consistent growth in earnings displayed by Pepsi over the past 25 years, we feel PEP shares are becoming a value at these levels.
Additionally, PEP sports a 3.3% yield, approaching historic highs. Given the current interest rate environment, we like stocks that pay more than the 10-year Treasury yield of 2%, while displaying solid and consistent growth.
Technically, there is solid support around 60, while being very oversold on 14-day RSI basis, dipping below 20 recently. Over the last ten years, levels this oversold have only occurred two previous times, both of which occurred at major lows.
With P/E valuations near 25-year lows, a steady stream of earnings, a dividend yield of 3.3% and a solid technical backdrop, we look for PEP shares to reach 68 by March 2012.
Play of the Day
Based on PepsiCo's (ticker: PEP) current market price of $60.54 and using a target price of $68.00, a target date of March 1, 2012 and $1,000 of investment capital, below are three options strategies (ranked by potential profit) and a comparative stock trade to consider should the price target be achieved at the target date.
Click on the strategy name below to access trade details using TradeBuilder on TradingBlock.com. Powered by TradingBlock's TradeBuilder.
|Strategy (click for details)||% Return at Target||Probability of breaking
even or better
|Buy Apr Call Spread||+100%||51%|
|Buy Apr Call||+90%||42%|
|Sell Apr Put Spread||+55%||54%|
* Subject to change due to changing market conditions.
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