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Dow Transports Lagging

Jan. 20, 2011 10:06 AM ET
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TomAspray's Blog
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Chart Analysis:   The transportation stocks, as represented by the Dow Jones Transportation Index, have been one of the leading sectors since the market bottomed. From the lows in March 2009 until last Friday’s close, the Dow Jones Transports are up 145% versus a 94% gain in the S&P 500.

In late December  I last discussed the Transports and gave an upside target at 5250 which was reached last week. One tool that I use to find the strongest sectors or stocks is the relative performance or RS analysis. It compares the performance of a stock or a major average to the S&P 500. As the market was bottoming last summer the RS (in red) formed higher highs suggesting that the Transports were leading the S&P 500.

  • Since the summer lows the Dow Transports have gained 4.5% more than the S&P 500
  • The RS line (chart through 1/19) has turned lower after peaking below the early December highs.
  • The RS has dropped below its 21 day weighted moving average
  • Volume in the Transports has increased on the recent decline.
  • A weekly close below 5090 will suggest a decline to 4820-4960

What it Means:  The changing RS analysis of the Down Jones Transports suggests that the market is likely to correct further. The alternative interpretation is that we are seeing sector rotation and that another sector is going to take over. The advance decline ratios was over 3 to 1 negative yesterday which is not a positive sign

How to Profit:     The analysis of the Transports is likely giving us a warning that the long awaited correction is finally underway. Intermediate trend is still positive so this should be a buying opportunity with first support for the S&P 500 at 1250-60 and then at 1230.

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