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Merry Mobile Christmas

|Includes: AAPL, GOOG, Hipcricket, Inc. (HIPPQ), T, VZ

With the holidays quickly approaching there is always the questions who will be the big winners. My guess this year it will be Mobile Advertising. Now that I mention it everybody is probably thinking well that is obvious. What are going to be the biggest sellers this season? Without a doubt it will be a huge year for smart phones and iPad and iPad like devices. Yes as much as Apple would like to believe they are alone in the large handheld market there is a host of iPad like devices ready to do battle. I mean in reality other than the Apple name there really is nothing magical that can not be replicated in a 10" display with capacitive touch screen that goes on a wireless network. Of course the apps are where Apple has a huge lead and will shine for years to come. Of course apps that work across all mobile platforms will be huge winners. Some companies like Scanbuy, Millennial Media and Augme Technologies already claim to have mobile apps that are platform independent.

Who will be the big winners this holiday? Obviously the big two, Google and Apple, will have a very happy holiday. With Apple ramping up iPad sales to over 2.5M devices per month you can expect a very happy holiday there. Google is well on its way to achieving its $5B/year in Mobile revenues by 2012. Considering they are currently doing around $1B/year thats one very steep curve that shows just how fast mobile revenues will grow. Microsoft is also going to be stronger than most expect. Their Windows phone 7 devices may actually be winners down the rode. Never discount a company that has dominated operating systems for the last decade and has the marketing power and financial backing they enjoy. It could become a race of big three after the holidays.

Keep in mind the real significance to this holiday is not really what device sales are but the total number of devices that will now be joining the mobile side in terms of smart phones and iPad like devices. Many of these wireless service providers such as AT+T and Verizon are now starting to offer much more reasonable data packages for their smart phones and this also will drive many more people to smart phones. I see that trend really accelerating and smart phones will in the next 12-18 months become the norm where something called a super smart phone will rise above and be a more top of the line smart phone. The more devices and the number of devices companies are able to work on will be the main driver in mobile advertising sales.

Recent surveys said only a third of smart phone users had actually clicked a mobile ad on their smart phones. This number will continue to increase especially as companies make the ads more relevant to the user. Add in the continued explosion of smart phone users and this mobile advertising growth is not a new wave of revenues but more like a long term tsunami.


Disclosure: Long Augme Technologies