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So How Much Bailout Money Does Spain Actually Need?

|Includes: EWP, CurrencyShares Euro Trust ETF (FXE)

According to two consulting firms hired by the Spanish government to conduct stress tests on the lenders, Spanish banking institutions would need approximately 62 billion euros in capital to withstand an absolute worst-case scenario. This scenario includes the following assumptions:

Land values fall as much as 90 percent from their peak, unemployment reaches 25.1 percent this year, 26.8 percent next year and 27.2 percent in 2014 and 10-year bond yields stay above 7.4 percent for three years.

Although at first glace 62 billion euros is a lot of money, it should be noted that it is not nearly as large as the 100 billion euros the Eurogroup set aside for a potential bailout of Spain's banking industry. Moreover, the IMF had previously estimated Spain's banking industry would need 60 to 80 billion euros in capital; the 62 billion euros is on the low end of that estimate. Also, Roland Berger, one of the consulting firms, has noted that Spain's top three banks won't require a recapitalization even in the worst-case scenario.

So yes, 62 billion euros is definitely a lot of money, but at least the hole Spain's banking system has dug itself into isn't as deep as we thought.