Greece will not leave the EUM. Negotiations are tough and unnerving but that's to be expected. There's too much at risk on both sides...a solution will be found.
Biggest news in all of this: Austerity in Europe is dead.
Even the national leaders that were waving the austerity flag are now hinting at the need for growth policies. The Greek drama catalyzed this discussion. However, optics matter in politics. It can't be allowed to appear that Europe is embracing ideas proposed by Greece's finmin, so I expect these policies to appear in altered form but with objectives similar to those in Varoufakis' Modest Proposal.
Once it embraces growth policies, Europe's economy will awaken. I expect we'll start seeing signs of a European awakening toward the end of 2015, maybe 2016H1. When that happens, continued global recovery should occur. Oil prices should rise with the increased demand that recovery brings.
In the U.S., I expect we'll see volatility when the Fed raises rates, but that will likely be short lived and should be used as a buying window. I don't anticipate a major correction in 2015 because the market is still cautious and we've already moved passed the recent corrections. Once Greece is resolved, I expect the bull market to resume and to reach new highs.
If time permits, I'll add to this with additional details and support in a follow-up post.
Disclosure: The author is long MT,NBG.