The Daily Market Information (DMI) (Dec. 9 2018, Sunday)

Dec. 08, 2018 7:49 PM ET
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Long Only, Momentum

Contributor Since 2010

O. Young Kwon, a NYU Ph.D. in Economics (80), had worked in the security industry for ten years as a Registered Investment Adviser (RIA). He taught Macroeconomics (CUNY, Staten Island) and Statistics (Rutgers, Newark) during 1979 to1981. In the early 1980s, he, as a full-time Research Associate, researched at the Center for International Business Cycle Research (CIBCR) (with Geoffery H. Moore) on business cycles, growth cycles, international indicators, composite indexes, and forecast of business conditions and inflation.

Prior to his academic career, he was an Economist/Bank Supervisor at the Bank of Korea (the Fed's counterpart) for ten years (1963 - 73). In 1971, he visited the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, sent by the Bank of Korea: He studied the long run central banking in the computerized environment.

He is a conservative investor, targeting a reasonable investment goal (inflation plus 5%), by setting well-diversified portfolios with Vanguard and Charles Schwab Exchange-Traded (Mutual) Funds (ETF) in the long run (5 to 7 years).

In recent years, significantly increased market volatility induced mainly by the more frequent online trading pattern, however, forces investors towards somewhat aggressive trading to gain more or lose less. It is a very serious challenge to conservative investors like him. He has traded in very short terms, based primarily upon his (manual) real - time framework. It successfully provides him with the turning points in a given session.

He studied at NYU under Oskar Morgenstern (Economic History, Game Theory), Wassily Leontief (Input-Output Theory), Fritz Machlup (International Finance and Trade), William J. Baumol (Economic Theory and Operations Analysis), M. Isaq Nadiri (Macroeconomic Theory), and Edward Wolff (Econometric Modelling). He worked on various research projects: The input-Output Framework of the U.S. Economy (Leontief), U.S. Productivity Measurements (Nadiri), Knowledge Distribution (Machlup), Firms, Games, Decisions (Baumol), and U.S. Household Spending and Saving Behavior (Wolff).

His Doctoral Thesis under Machlup (1980): Theory of Foreign Exchange and Economic Policy.

 

Summary

  • ‘Death Cross’ portends more near-term losses for U.S. stocks, then rebound.
  • Licking their wounds, fund managers prep for rally in ’19.
  • Re-hot U.S. jobs market drives some to seek cooler options.

Traders should take an advantage from the market volatility only if we can get a right guide. My approach of the guide is a top-to-bottom, starting macroeconomic views, and updating daily TANER System: The Daily Market Information (7 days a week), The Daily TANER Momentum ETF Model (M), The DTM Schwab Model (T), The DTM Rotation Model (W), The DTM Vanguard Model (TH), and The DTM Stock Model (F)” (From The Outstanding Records of Investing and Trading…in 2016: Would The Strategy Prevail in 2017 Too? The Outstanding Records Of Investing And Trading With ETFs In 2016: Would The Strategy Prevail In 2017 Too? - O. Young Kwon

My focus is primarily on news about two areas: The Fed policy and Business Cycles. These are macro topics. DMI is a summary of what I listen to BBR, and read WSJ, Reuters, Bloomberg, AP, and Barons (weekend) from 5:a.m. to 7:00 a.m. everyday.

With this information and the RED Spread (introduced in my article. Link: www.seekingalpha.com/article/817551) you can grasp the current market situation

The Daily Market Information (DMI) (Dec. 9 2018, Sunday)

Reuters

‘Death Cross’ portends more near-term losses for U.S. stocks, then rebound 'Death cross' portends more near-term losses for U.S. stocks, then...

Licking their wounds, fund managers prep for rally in ’19 Licking their wounds, fund managers prep for rally in '19

Re-hot U.S. jobs market drives some to seek cooler options Red-hot U.S. jobs market drives some to seek cooler options

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