On Dec 16th I used pitchfork analysis to indicate pattern of trend for SPY and my low side price target of 1290.
On Dec 13th amidst much negative press I used Gann time analysis to indicate an upside minimum price target of 1290 to 1320 to be completed in January 2012.
On Dec 21st I used volume by price to show current overhead supply resistance and hypothesized that this would soon become support; restating my price target minimum of 1290 to 1320 to be completed in January 2012.
Today Jan 4th, a day that started lower again on negative news, ended up being very constructive for the bull case. The last two candlesticks have formed a Bullish Piercing Line Pattern. This pattern is defined as: Bullish Piercing Line Pattern is a bottom reversal pattern. A long black candlestick is followed by a gap lower during the next day while the market is in downtrend. The day ends up as a strong white candlestick, which closes more than halfway into the prior black candlestick’s real body. Notice volume by price has now become a support area; as speculated on Dec 21st. Using Square of 9 calculator expect SPY up side resistance at: 129.39, 132.35, if real bullish 135.14. These target areas will bring about the extreme bullishness required to put in a solid top.
Just for confirmation sake, I have included the DIA etf, which tracks the DOW JONES 30. DIA formed a Bullish Engulfing Pattern, which is defined as:
Bullish Engulfing Pattern is a pattern characterized by a large white real body engulfing a preceding small black real body, which appears during a downtrend. The white body does not necessarily engulf the shadows of the black body but totally engulfs the body itself. The Bullish Engulfing Pattern is an important bottom reversal signal.
Conclusion: Despite a very choppy and difficult Santa Claus December, filled with many fits and starts, my price targets remain the same. Even though the world wide data and news does not support the targets, and many times on big down days the targets looked in doubt, technically we did not get any signal to change our position.
Stock trading will always try and shake out both bull and bears with extreme fear and greed. It is very difficult to stick with a position as your resolve will be tested many times before getting paid.