Let me preference this write up by saying I approach my charting objectively. I do not watch CNBC or any other stock program. No matter what the stock market did on any given day, I view my charts with NO EXPECTATION. I review a list of 50 ETFs and 10 Name Brand Stocks daily.
The following ETF's are major pillars of stock market bull success. To confirm a rally and be confident, these ETF's should also confirm.
I. DDM-Proshares Dow
A. So far in the new year, we can clearly see a ramp on volume compared to the previous months. This ramp in volume as resulted in a LOWER HIGH for DDM, a black spinning top today, in what I am sure was a praised BULL DAY on the TV Shows.
B. The 20 day moving average is closing fast the gap created by Santa
C. RSI<2> is making lower highs
II. IYT Transports
A. Bookend Change of Direction DOJI has emerged
B. Lower Highs RSI<2>
C. OBV remains positive
D. Consolidation or Distribution at the Volume by Price Indicator-yet to be determined
III. OIL ETF-daily
A. Oil and the DOW have diverged. They were both moving same direction until 2012. Which is correct?
B. OIL weakness despite the drum beat of war with IRAN-signaling a resumption of bad economy and lower demand
C. Extremely bearish deliberation moving below previous volume by price support
D. Volume by price is confirmed resistance now
E. OBV collapse
IV. OIL ETF-weekly
A. Suggested distribution box that began in late November; currently 3 months strong.
V. SSO-S&P Ultra daily
A. On a big rally day, SSO formed a Bearish High Wave-loss of direction. This was formed as a lower high.
B. RSI lower highs
C. OBV 20 day gap has been closed.
VI. TMF-20 year T-bill
A. Divergence from Dow
B. Double top formed between Jan 17th and today.
C. Despite stock rally, Bearish Harami formation
D. OBV move above 20 sma denied
VII. UST-7 and 10 year Treasury
A. Divergence from Dow
B. Bearish Harami
C. OBV has collapsed
Next week is 180 day completion on 360 yearly cycle. Yesterday I noted on Twitter many Parabolic Sar sell signals. Today, these charts again provide NO COMPELLING REASON to be long the major indexes.
Therefore, our strategy of long HIGH RISK mojo stocks like NFLX and potentially CROX and GMCR, along with slowly averaging into TVIX for the eventual market sell off continues. (Side note, RUSSIA is looking good as alternative investment to USA)