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My March-13 Strategy Review

Happy Easter everyone. Let's review March performance:

1. Soyoil - we began at 49-94 and finished at 50-35 in July contract. The result is modest due to last day bearish crop stocks report - although it was bearish mostly for corn and much less bearish for soybeans, it dragged down the whole ag sector. This is a temporary move and things should return to status quo in a few days. This is a good opportunity to add to holdings.

2. WTI - we began at 91-86 and 97-64 in July contract. No comments.

3. Cotton - July futures began at 86-05 and finished at 89-81. My call to short was premature again. But I still believe this is a matter a time. We had a peak of price at 92 on 15th and since then prices slowly cripple down.

4. Natural Gas - the bull of the month! Commodity added about 30% in March. I should think of starting own advisory))) However I am in the bear camp since a few days ago. The market rally is about to end soon in my opinion.

5. Heating Oil - as predicted the prices went down a bit in first couple of weeks and then I quit shorts as intended and currently I have no interest but watching and waiting.

6. Live Cattle - we began March at 129-95, bottomed at 125-30 and finished at 128-90. My call to go long was premature but it looks like things begin to recover.

7. Copper - I was not sure if I wanted to buy it and I set a ridiculously low (as thought then) order which was triggered on the first day of Cyprus drama. That was really unexpected but what can I say... I will wait.

8. Wheat - I closed my position and booked losses. That spoiled my trading results a great deal but I would be way more pissed today after a terrible grain stocks report. So no regrets. What done is done and let's move on.

The month has brought us an unpleasant "black swan" type event called Cyprus. EU took a ruthless position towards this small island and forced them to steal from own clients. Russians made a mistake too - they had an chance to acquire a dominion for only a few billions and they turned away this opportunity. Clearly they are not that superpower nation they used to be. So score of stupid things became even 1-1 and with a knife to the throat and abandoned by everyone Cyprus did what they were demanded to do. This will have far ranging consequences but short sighted EU socialists are in charge so buckle up and be prepared for bumpy ride.