Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

My November-13 Strategy Review

Time to revisit forecast for November:

Natural Gas - I was right to quit it during first week of the month and I did it just a couple of cents away from the bottom. That's was pure luck and nothing else. Also, I was right saying that important breakthrough was about to develop. Where I was wrong is the I missed the exit moment when I reestablished my shorts during second half of the month - I was anticipating a pullback from month lows to make 4th wave of the Fibo cycle and it happened very accurately, by the book. Then, 5th wave started to develop down and I opened my shorts. However in about day or two this pattern was destroyed completely by sudden news about cold weather and I missed the exit point and now I sit with losing position. I hope the trend will reverse soon as market is heavily overbought. But overall that was quite a grim lesson.

Cocoa - another grim disappointment. Shorts were premature. The news was old but they were enough to support a raging bull. In any event the market is crowded with speculators holding long positions. Sooner or later they will be liquidating. Stiff upper lip.

Lean Hogs - speculators gave up their overextended longs and I made some money shorting LH. Not too much but still nice.

Overall the month was profitable but energy sector jitters made some bloodshed. OK, keep your spirits high, the battle goes on.