As last business day of November just ended I will quickly run through the performance of my positions.
KC - coffee calmed down after October worries as predicted.
CC - looks like market finally changed its direction and bears are in control.
SB - sugar was losing positions until recent Unica report showed reduction in sugar production. I quit my bearish position a couple of days before the report.
NG - that was a nightmare in November for bears like me. Weather turn was very unexpected. But as it was to stay for a brief period only I chose to endure the pain. Now NG is just a notch higher than it was a month ago.
C - here I was wrong and after reviewing fundamentals I decided to take pain. Can't win all the money in the World anyway.
HE - hogs market shows bear trend but bulls are reluctant to give up. Waiting for them to surrender.
S, MS, BO - S and SM bottomed on October 1 and I decided not to invest in these after revisiting the fundamentals. Instead I was selling rallies in BO. BO however was somewhere neutral which is absolutely fine for option seller like myself.
CL, HO, RB - no comments. You know it crashed. Politics is a nasty game.
Looking back this period was sometimes painful but the majority of calls I made were correct. End of QE, weaker growth, political tensions continue to discourage investors to invest thus giving bears more power.
Has super-cycle finished? I do not know. Many say "Yes" but contrarian Jim Rogers says "No". Although I regard him as a teacher in commodities and investments in general I do not agree with him this time - fundamental issues that cause financial crisis have not been resolved and instead new threats of new cold war and new stage of war in Middle East come into play. How would World economy develop in such circumstances and boost demand for commodities? I do not know. And his words about investing in Russia turn me away from him too - why would one choose to invest in a country where investors do not feel safe and economy of which is being garroted by sanctions? They yet have to hit the bottom.