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Johnson & Johnson: Cash Flow Update

|Includes: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

Current Price: ~ $65/share
Projected Yield: ~ 3.54%

Johnson & Johnson ranks as the world's largest and most diverse health-care company. The company comprises three divisions: pharmaceutical, medical devices and diagnostics, and consumer. While the pharmaceutical division currently represents close to 36% of total sales, we expect patent losses and the Synthes acquisition to reduce this proportion to approximately 27% during the next 10 years, with the device segment picking up the majority of the share.

Estimated WACC for the firm today is 7.16% using the Capital Asset Pricing Model and the company's recent SEC filings.

Recent free cash flows and noted growth rates:

Year FCF $Millions
2002 6077
2003 8333
2004 8956
2005 9245
2006 11510
2007 11939
2008 11906
2009 14206
2010 14001
2011 11405

Average Annual Growth FCF: ~ 8%

CAGR FCF: ~ 7%
Consensus Forecast Industry 5-Year Growth: ~ 7% per year

Consensus Forecast Company 5-Year Growth: ~ 6% per year

Internal Growth Rate: ~ 3%

Sustainable Growth Rate: ~ 6%

Scenario 1
Average FCF (2011, 2010) is $12703 million

  • Start at $12703 million FCF
  • Assume a 5-year growth rate in FCF of 6% per year, then no growth or 0% growth in FCF per year forever:

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation

Year FCF $Millions
0 12703
1 13465
2 14273
3 15129
4 16037
5 16999
Terminal Value 251581

The firm's future cash flows, discounted at a WACC of 7.16%, give a present value for the entire firm (Debt + Equity) of $239496 million. If the firm's fair value of debt is estimated at $15585 million, then the fair value of the firm's equity could be $223911 million. $223911 million / 2750 million outstanding shares is approximately $81 per share and a 20% margin of safety is $65/share.

Scenario 2
All else being equal,

  • Assume a 5-year growth rate in FCF of 2% per year, then 0% growth in FCF per year forever:

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation

Year FCF $Millions
0 12703
1 12957
2 13216
3 13481
4 13750
5 14025
Terminal Value 199730
  • Present Value of the entire firm (Debt + Equity): $196233 million
  • Value of Equity: $180648 million or $66/share
  • 20% margin of safety is $53/share

Sources

Morningstar.com

Yahoo! Finance

Johnson & Johnson

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.