Leggett & Platt Inc: Cash Flow Valuation Update
Value, Long/Short Equity
Contributor Since 2011
Current Price: ~ $23/share
Projected Yield: ~ 4.85%
2011 EPS: $1.04 DPS: $1.10
Leggett & Platt engineers components and products for a variety of uses. Its springs and spring units are used in bedding and chairs. The company also makes headboards, die-cast products for barbecue grills and lighting fixtures, and store displays and shelving. Its Specialized Products segment offers machinery, manufacturing equipment, automotive seating suspensions, control cable systems, and lumbar supports.
Estimated WACC for the firm today is 10.98% using the Capital Asset Pricing Model and the company's recent SEC filings.
Recent free cash flows and noted growth rates:
| Year | FCF $Millions |
| 2002 | 332 |
| 2003 | 259 |
| 2004 | 185 |
| 2005 | 284 |
| 2006 | 313 |
| 2007 | 465 |
| 2008 | 318 |
| 2009 | 482 |
| 2010 | 295 |
| 2011 | 254 |
Average Annual Growth FCF: ~ 3%
CAGR FCF: ~ -3%
Consensus Forecast Industry 5-Year Growth: ~ 33% per year
Consensus Forecast Company 5-Year Growth: ~ 15% per year
Internal Growth Rate: ~ 0%
Sustainable Growth Rate: ~ -1%
Scenario 1
- Start at $254 million FCF
- Assume a 5-year growth rate in FCF of 15% per year, then no growth or 0% growth in FCF per year forever:
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
| Year | FCF $Millions |
| 0 | 254 |
| 1 | 292 |
| 2 | 336 |
| 3 | 386 |
| 4 | 444 |
| 5 | 511 |
| Terminal Value | 5351 |
The firm's future cash flows, discounted at a WACC of 10.98%, give a present value for the entire firm (Debt + Equity) of $4594 million. If the firm's fair value of debt is estimated at $865 million, then the fair value of the firm's equity could be $3729 million. $3729 million / 140 million outstanding shares is approximately $27 per share and a 20% margin of safety is $22/share.
Scenario 2
All else being equal,
- Assume a 5-year growth rate in FCF of 12% per year, then 0% growth in FCF per year forever:
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
| Year | FCF $Millions |
| 0 | 254 |
| 1 | 284 |
| 2 | 319 |
| 3 | 357 |
| 4 | 400 |
| 5 | 448 |
| Terminal Value | 4566 |
- Present Value of the entire firm (Debt + Equity): $4018 million
- Value of Equity: $3153 million or $23/share
- 20% margin of safety is $18/share
Scenario 3
All else being equal,
- Assume a 5-year growth rate in FCF of 8% per year, then 3% growth in FCF per year forever:
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
| Year | FCF $Millions |
| 0 | 254 |
| 1 | 274 |
| 2 | 296 |
| 3 | 320 |
| 4 | 346 |
| 5 | 373 |
| Terminal Value | 5051 |
- Present Value of the entire firm (Debt + Equity): $4172 million
- Value of Equity: $3307 million or $24/share
- 20% margin of safety is $19/share
Sources
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.