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Selections For December 2018


The December selections for the original ELVS are #1 VFIIX and #2 GSSDX. The weekly MDBS is selecting BIL (money market) for the first week in December.

November was a nearly flat month as most strategies were invested in money market funds. Some strategies selected SEMPX and it lost 0.40%, while volatility targeting strategies gained 0.40%.

The original ELVS has returned 3.2% YTD while AGG has returned -1.85% YTD.

Give a portion to seven, or even to eight

for you know not what disaster may happen on earth. (Ecc. 11:2)

November was a pretty flat month since most of my eight strategies were in money market funds. One bond fund (SEMPX) that was selected in some of the strategies did not do well in November, losing 0.40%. The two volatility targeting strategies gain 0.40% for the month, so they negated the losses of the strategies that held SEMPX.

I will be tweaking some of the strategies for 2019, but I will announce the changes next month. One change I am considering is to go back to the original ELVS version that just uses the original tickers WHIYX, NHMAX, OOSAX, VFIIX and GSSDX. This version seems to be doing the best among all of the ELVS versions that are out there, having a 3.2% return for 2018 YTD.

I would like to take a survey to determine what ELVS versions followers are using. In the comment section, please identify what version you are using. This will help me in presenting ELVS selections each month, and it will help Greg who designs the spreadsheet for ELVS.

Selections for December 2018

Here are the December 2018 selections for my eight tactical strategies. The first three strategies are used in Vanguard accounts, and the last five strategies are used in Schwab accounts. If you desire the Portfolio Visualizer [PV] links to the strategies, please ask me in a Seeking Alpha message (not in the comments). I will only give out the PV link information to private DIY investors, i.e. not to financial professionals.

1. Vanguard Capital Preservation Strategy [VCPS]: 50% (VFITX) and 50% (VFISX).

2. Vanguard Balanced Strategy [VBS]: 100% (VFIIX).

3. Vanguard Volatility Targeting Strategy [VVTS]: 18.3% S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:VOO) and 81.7% Vanguard Money Market (VMMXX).

4. Schwab Quarterly Bond Strategy [SQBS]. I'm using the monthly version. The selection for December is 100% (VFIIX).

5. Schwab Monthly Bond Strategy [SMBS]: 100% (NHMAX).

6. Schwab Enhanced Low Volatility Strategy [ELVS]:

For the original 5-fund version of ELVS (relative strength model using WHIYX, NHMAX, VFIIX, OOSAX, and GGSDX), the #1 fund is (VFIIX) [ranked 1.49] and the #2 fund is (GSSDX) [ranked 2.02].

For the 7-fund version of ELVS (relative strength model using PONAX, LSFAX, NHMAX, WHIYX, PMZIX, NEFLX, and SEMPX), the #1 fund is (NEFLX) [ranking of 1.51] and the #2 fund is (PMZIX) [ranking of 2.51].

For the dual momentum duplicate funds version of ELVS (basket of WHIYX, DSIAX, NHMAX, MMHAX, LSFAX, EAFAX, PMZIX, SEMPX), the #1 fund is (PMZIX) [ranking 2.51] and the #2 fund is (BIL) [ranking 2.53]. 

7. Schwab Volatility Targeting Strategy [SVTS]: 18.3% Schwab US Large Cap ETF (SCHX) and 81.7% Schwab Money Market (MUTF:SWVXX).

8. Schwab IOFAX Scheme: The selection is Schwab Money Maket (SWVXX).

Please let me know if I have made any mistakes.