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Selections For October 2019

Summary

The original ELVS selection for September is VFIIX. The selection of NHMAX for September resulted in a loss of 0.55%.

The current selection for the weekly-updated MDBS_ETF is VMBS (Corrected). This strategy also had a negative return in September of 1.43%.

All bond classes lost money or just barely broke even in September. There is really no positive momentum in the bond market at the present time.

For October, based on momentum, I am heavily invested in money market funds. The only bond funds I am currently holding are NVHAX, VFIIX, and LEXNX. I will wait to see positive momentum develop before investing in other assets.

Give a portion to seven, or even to eight

for you know not what disaster may happen on earth. (Ecc. 11:2)

Please refer to a previous blog (posted December 23, 2018 on my SA Instablog) as background for my strategies in 2019. Links to Portfolio Visualizer for each strategy are included in the December 23rd blog post. Free, easy-to-use spreadsheets of three of my strategies (Original ELVS, DF_ELVS and ULVS) were developed by Greg Katai, and they can be downloaded at this post.

At the present time, it looks like there is no positive momentum in the bond market for any bond category. The September monthly returns for pretty much all of the bond funds I track were either near zero or negative. So I will be very defensive going into October, putting a lot of my money in money market funds and waiting to invest in other bond funds until positive momentum is seen again. 

Here are the October 2019 selections for my strategies:

1. Original ELVS: VFIIX. Again, all of the funds in ELVS showed negative return in September except VFIIX (that showed a meager 0.07% gain). NHMAX, the selection for September, lost 0.55%.  

ELVS has only earned 2.3% YTD. This has been a disappointment to say the least. We have seen a lot of whipsaw this year.

2. DF_ELVS: VFIIX (50%, overall ranking = 2.49) and MMHAX (overall ranking = 3.04). Please note how low the overall rankings are for these two top-ranked funds. VFIIX gained 0.07% in September while MMHAX lost 0.32% in September.

DF_ELVS owned NHMAX and MMHAX in September, and they combined to lose 0.44% for the month. This strategy has gained 2.6% YTD.

3. ULVS: The top-ranked fund for October is LEXNX, but none of the funds have really good momentum. This strategy owned LEXNX for September, and it lost 0.14% for the month. ULVS has gained 5.5% YTD with extremely low daily volatility.

4. VV_ELVS: VWEHX. This strategy owned VWAHX in September and lost 0.66%. This strategy has earned 6.9% YTD.

5. Weekly MDBS_ETF: VMBS (Corrected). In September, MDBS_ETF owned HYD early in the month and SRLN later in the month. The strategy lost 1.43% in September; it has a YTD return of 6.7%.

6. VAA-G4: LQD (100%). VAA-G4 owned LQD in August and lost 0.76% for the month. As with all equity strategies, VAA-G4 can be very volatile at times. Rolling one year return is 5.0% per TrendXplorer's website.

7. Weekly LSFAX/LSFYX Strategy: VMBS (100%). This strategy owned VMBS in September and gained 0.13% in September. It has gained 3.6% YTD.

Please let me know if I made any mistakes.

Overall, it was not a good month for my tactical bond strategies. In my Schwab accounts, I was down 0.8% for September; my YTD return is +5.6%. In my Vanguard accounts, I lost 0.9% in September, and my YTD return is 4.2%.