It seems these days it takes months after months to increase asset value but just a single week or two to loose it.
I don’t know who and what we need to thank for, for these phenomenons, here is the proof,
Whatever the markets gained the whole year, they seem to have dropped in less than 10 days. Guess who the leader of the pack on the downside is financials and industrials. What a surprise there after the 2008 financial crisis?
Here is another chart,
So, what is going on?
Are the markets suggesting that there is going to be a recession? Last I checked, US GDP was at 1.8% adding both the quarters on the positive side though.
Definition of recession was and I believe is two continuous quarters of negative GDP growth - last two quarters were 0.5% and 1.8% which where above zero.
This time with stock market drop, dollar did not gain all that it had lost since QE2 which was about 13% but Gold seem to be taking it’s place. Good news for the consumer is Oil is also tanking but not sure for how long since demand for Oil is not just within boundaries of US. So, are the markets playing poker again is the question?
What else is up across? Refinancing applications but no positive news on home buying front as the gauge seems to be moving painfully up after a double dip in housing. There is some housing data coming out next week will be interesting to watch.
US Industrial production and Euro Area Industrial production seem to be slowing down since April 2011. This can only be single largest cause that can be attributed at this point till we see the GDP on Aug 26th.
But I think markets may have overdone the downside especially on the financials across the world. Hence, my full disclosure. I’m long several of US and global financials, technology, mining, oil, consumer discretionary and communication equities and may have positions short or long on Options.