Then comes MS Morgan Stanley Cuts Global Growth Forecast With U.S. ‘Close’ to Recession
Then comes GS Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Cut Growth Forecasts As Equities Tumble
It seems market want to prove me wrong, all though it tried to make half the distance of the loss only to falter again half of that half way. So, while the title of the post may need some revisions, let us examine what happened.
Here are sequence of the events for you in August,
It starts on August 2nd with American debt ceiling deal US Increase of debt ceiling bill - 2011
Then comes slump in Industrial production in Germany and France remains Flat. US was 0.9%.
Then comes European Banks Fall as Merkel, Sarkozy Propose Financial Tax copying what was done in U.K earlier this year
Then comes JP Morgan chase cutting the rest of GDP increases to 1%. Actual GDP change for Q2 came in at 1%.
Result of this sequence - a mud slide for the equities and literally squeeze out of most of long position holders for August option expiry. Near term bottom seems to be 108 on DIA (ETF tracking US Blue chips and 111 on SPY (ETF tracking S&P 500 Index).
What’s interesting about this was the speed?
It took less than 10 days to hit the bottom - August 2nd to August 18th. Europe went on a short squeeze ban which will be getting lifted on Oct 1st.
So, what lies ahead for September?
— Currencies - Dollar was strengthening till yesterday as result of German and France industrial production data and possible let us just say economic slow down that could result in a recession.
--- Oil - Oil is set to be low. Pundits will acclaim this as Consumer victory. Given the uprising in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Saudi’s may the fight Oil price inflation for some more time.
— Equities - Painfully at the lower levels reflecting sentiment of slow down
— US bond markets - Long end yields have come down hard suggesting heavy buying, suggesting fear of growth
— Brazil announces a surprise rate cut, suggesting that they are not happy with the current growth levels.
— India GDP came in at 7.7% and still combating inflation
— China raised the bank reserves suggesting they are still trying to cool down
— Australia came out of negative GDP quarter and as of yesterday, Germany’s industrial production bounced back again this month, suggesting globe may not be in the bad shape
— US fed today announced that they are swap the short terms for the long terms - suggesting they are driving the banks to lend more by trying to keep the consumer and business demand high for lending, not to mention some interest savings for the government
What still beats me is this?
Looking at the sequence, I was convinced that this downward spiral in the equity markets was temporary, still tend to believe so, but I may have been just wrong about the time for recovery.