The score card of the DISH vs. Softbank takeover of Sprint shows the two offers being similar in price... in fact Softbank's offer for 70% compares favorably in dollar terms to DISH's offer for 100% of Sprint.
DISH's presentation proposes up to $37 billion in NPV due to growth of new markets and synergistic cost savings stemming from domestic operations. This is obvious gilding of the Lilly but its likely to get a close screening by Sprint's BOD. DISH just lists question marks for similar benefits or savings in the Softbank column. Softbank and Sprint have not, to my knowledge specified combined savings and NPV of new business. They remain engaged in deliberations with the DOJ and FCC and may not reveal more than sketchy plans for new networks until after that wraps up.
On first blush, I think DISH's offer will be rejected by Sprint's BOD.
Among reasons: To enter the ranks fully as among the top three US operators, Sprint needs a broader device develop and supply ecosystem that Softbank provides. The nature of the business is in a rapid state of flux, shifting to media and broadband enterprise markets. Sprint needs enforcement in software, networking, marketing approaches that Softbank provides. DISH now offers a counter to many of these benefits nd the additional ability to add to domestic deployments, content supply, and innovations in home entertainment, or what we call 'seat to the street' connectivity.
Sprint must fully evaluate the DISH offer which will give Ergen face time with Sprint BOD and management to discuss potential combined operations... to make DISH's case more fully. Who knows, maybe the long thwarted attempts for the two companies to get together, even while not an acquisition, will happen. These deals are complex with many factors needing to be worked out. This is Ergen's perhaps last chance to do that before a future wave of consolidation envelops all satellite operators.
The synergies between cable/DSL and satellite operators has been a long-standing grounds for speculation. The diverse segments has become increasingly overlapped but the parties too far apart to come to agreement - at least up until now. Circumstances make it possible for this to dovetail into Softbank+Sprint-CW+DISH.
Impacts on stock prices:
Softbank and Sprint stocks are both near highs following the merger agreement following a jolt down for Softbank. The marriage is long-term positive for both companies despite challenges in execution. Clearwire looks locked up by Sprint at or slightly above the current price as needed to secure votes of 20% remaining of minority shareholders.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.